The most anticipated matchup of the NFL divisional round was saved for last, as the Buffalo Bills host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday evening.
The pregame narrative: Buffalo’s Josh Allen appears destined to finish runner-up in MVP voting, but I expect him to outshine Lamar Jackson in at least one way on Sunday. Also, Derrick Henry should be in for a sizeable workload for the Ravens.
Check out my Ravens vs. Bills prop picks for the divisional round.
Ravens vs. Bills prop picks
Go to full NFL playoff betting markets.
Best bet: Henry over 19.5 rush attempts (-117)
Last year in the AFC championship game, the Ravens did the inexplicable thing of abandoning the run game.
But after signing Derrick Henry in the offseason, there’s really no excuse to pull that stunt again.
Henry is still a Yeti-sized game-breaker, and he seems to only get stronger as the season wears on. His production over the past four weeks is absurd:
- 97 carries
- 633 yards
- 5 TDs
Henry had 20-plus carries and 135-plus rush yards in all four games.
Baltimore’s run play percentage (53.6%) is the second-highest in the NFL. That has a lot to do with Henry’s bell-cow capabilities.
All the way back in Week 4, Henry ripped off an 87-yard TD run on his first carry against the Bills. But he still put in a strong day volume-wise, finishing with 24 carries and 199 yards.
Key stat: Henry has cashed this bet in nine of his past 16 games, averaging 20.0 carries in that span.
Quick picks
Most passing yards — Allen (-143): Based on the fact that Jackson earned first-team All-Pro honours, he’ll likely claim the NFL MVP award over Allen, too.
But from a passing standpoint, I expect Allen to have a better game on Sunday.
- In his 11-game playoff career, Allen has averaged 272.3 passing yards. He’s accrued 260+ passing yards in 8/11 games.
- In Jackson’s seven playoff starts, he’s averaged just 214.1 passing yards — finishing below 200 yards five times.
Thanks to Henry, the Ravens rarely need to air the ball out. Jackson finished with just 153 passing yards against the Bills in Week 4 despite his team putting up 35 points (Allen had 180 passing yards that day).
Zay Flowers is doubtful, which means Jackson will likely be without his top target. Yet another reason to expect more production from Allen than his counterpart.
Picks made at 3:10 p.m. ET on 01/18/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.