Jameson Williams and Jayden Daniels are my two prop targets for Saturday night’s playoff matchup between the Washington Commanders and the Detroit Lions.
The pregame narrative: The price may not jump off the screen for Williams’ receptions prop, but he’s been such a steady presence for Detroit that I’m still looking to buy in. As for Daniels, there are a handful of reasons why he has value to be the game’s leading passer.
Check out my Commanders vs. Lions prop picks for the divisional round.
Commanders vs. Lions prop picks
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Best bet: Williams over 3.5 receptions (-148)
There’s a lot of juice on this line, but I still think it’s playable as a straight wager based on Williams’ hefty involvement in the Lions’ game plan over the latter half of the season.
Splitting his season in half, look at how Williams’ statistical averages have climbed:
- First 7 games: 5.0 targets, 2.9 catches, 59.1 yards
- Past 8 games: 7.0 targets, 4.8 catches, 73.4 yards
Due to injuries and suspensions, it took Williams three seasons to blossom into the wideout Detroit needs him to be.
The 12th overall pick from the 2022 draft is a certified burner, but the Lions aren’t always looking to send him on a go route. Sometimes, it makes more sense to give him the ball closer to the line of scrimmage and let him make a play.
Williams’ average depth of target is 11.3 yards this year (versus 15.7 last year and 16.7 as a rookie). Remember, this pick is about volume, not one splash play.
Fortunately for Detroit, Williams can do both. He’s a superb sidekick for Amon-Ra St. Brown, creating a completely different type of matchup issue.
In a game with a sky-high projected total (55.5 points), I like Williams to stay firmly involved for the home team.
Key stat: Williams went over 3.5 receptions in seven of his final eight games during the regular season, totalling 38 catches in that span.
Quick picks
Most passing yards — Daniels (+141): Based on their season averages, Jared Goff should be a clear favourite over Daniels in this market.
After all, Goff threw for 272.3 yards per game versus Daniels’ 209.9.
But there are a few reasons why I like the plus-money side with Daniels on Saturday night:
- Washington is a +9.5 underdog, which means it’ll likely play from behind most of the game. A negative game script typically lends itself to a heavier dose of passing plays.
- David Montgomery is back for the Lions, restoring the NFL’s best running back tandem. With two stellar tailbacks, Detroit can opt for a run-heavy offence if it so chooses.
- And maybe Detroit should opt for a run-heavy offence, given that the Commanders’ defence ranks 28th in rush yards per attempt (4.8) and 27th in EPA per rush.
Daniels threw for 268 yards on 24-of-35 passing last week in his playoff debut. If he needs to sling it, he can.
Picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET on 01/17/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.