I have picks on both men’s and women’s matches for the fourth round of the Australian Open.
The pregame narrative: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is coming off back-to-back underdog wins, and I expect a hard-fought battle from him against Tommy Paul. Elsewhere, I expect Aryna Sabalenka’s match with Mirra Andreeva to go the distance at plus-money odds.
Check out my top Australian Open picks for the fourth round.
Australian Open picks
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Best Bet: Davidovich/Paul over 37.5 games (-113)
This should be a thrilling contest between two competitors with exceptional defensive skills.
Here’s how their return stats from the 2024 compare:
| Player | Return Rating | Return Games Won (%) | Breaks Converted (%) |
| Davidovich | 141.4 (22nd) | 22.6% (20th) | 39.4% (36th) |
| Paul | 157.2 (5th) | 28.6% (4th) | 42.6% (6th) |
Davidovich has emerged as one of the biggest stories of the tournament. The No. 66-ranked Spaniard overcame a two-set deficit in back-to-back matches to defeat Felix Auger-Aliassime and Jakub Mensik.
Despite an easy draw, Paul was on the verge of a first-round exit and needed five sets to defeat Australia’s Christopher O’Connell.
In the third round, the No. 11-ranked American defeated Roberto Carballes Baena (7-6, 6-2, 6-0) in straight sets. He was solid on returns while benefitting from nine double faults.
Paul now faces an opponent who might not have an overpowering serve but can absorb pressure, win long rallies and limit unforced errors.
This will be the fourth encounter between these competitors. They played to a fifth set at the 2023 Australian Open, where Paul grabbed the victory (6-2, 2-6, 6-7[4], 6-3, 6-4).
The difference in time spent on-court is significant — and perhaps worrying for Davidovich — but both players’ defensive skills and court coverage are makings of a back-and-forth battle.
Key stat: Paul has competed in 16 tiebreaks over 20 career matches at the Australian Open.
Other picks
Sabalenka/Andreeva over 2.5 sets (+165): Sabalenka is coming off a lacklustre showing in the third round.
The reigning Australian Open champion is off to an exceptional start in 2025, winning eight straight matches and dropping just one set. But her serve has looked vulnerable at times during this stretch.
She was forced into a tiebreak against Clara Tauson, who broke serve twice and didn’t concede a single ace.
This could be a problem against No. 11-ranked Andreeva, who is well-regarded for her excellent court coverage and strong returns. Last year, she ranked 47th in break points converted (51.6%).
The young Russian is familiar with Sabalenka’s game, having faced her three times before. Andreeva knocked out Sabalenka in the quarter-finals of the 2024 French Open (6-7, 6-4, 6-4).
At 17 years old, Andreeva has the potential to be a top player in the women’s circuit.
Despite a lack of big tournament experience, Andreeva has posted a 4-4 record against top 10 competitors for her career.
These two players have history, and I can see Andreeva stealing a set over the No. 1-ranked player.
Australian Open picks made at 12:35 p.m. on 01/17/25
