The Ohio State Buckeyes face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish on Monday night to crown the next national champions of the College Football Playoff.
The pregame narrative: Ohio State has a juggernaut of an offence, but Notre Dame’s strength starts on the defensive side. In a strength-on-strength showdown, I like OSU’s Will Howard and Emeka Egbuka to find ways to win.
Check out my Ohio State vs. Notre Dame prop picks for the CFP national championship on Jan. 20.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame prop picks
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Best Bet: Howard 250+ passing yards (-129)
Leonard Moore, Notre Dame’s stellar cornerback and FWAA Freshman Defensive Player of the Year, made a noteworthy claim on Wednesday regarding how the Irish aim to defend Ohio State’s offence:
“We’re going to play man coverage like we do every week,” Moore said. “We’re going to go out there and challenge the receivers.”
If I was Howard, I’d be thinking, “Challenge accepted.”
Ohio State has three highly capable route winners in its receiving corps for Howard to throw to:
- Jeremiah Smith: No. 1 overall recruit in the 2024 class, Big Ten leader in receiving TDs (14) and viewed by many as the top receiver in the country.
- Emeka Egbuka: 26 TDs and 2,804 yards in his collegiate career, expected to be a first-round pick in April’s NFL draft.
- Carnell Tate: No. 3-ranked wideout in the 2023 class, has 50 catches and 698 yards as the team’s WR3.
If you’re willing to believe Moore’s claim that Notre Dame will commit to playing man coverage, you should also believe that someone on Ohio State’s side can take advantage and get open for Howard.
Notre Dame does have the No. 1 pass defence in the country, at least based on EPA per pass (-0.42), success rate (32.2%) and opponent completion percentage (50.7%).
Then again, Ohio State’s passing offence is near the top of the heap, too:
- 4th in EPA/pass (0.31)
- 2nd in success rate (52.5%)
- 6th in yards/attempt (9.2)
Ohio State’s WR room has no equal, and I think Notre Dame is about to find that out the hard way.
Key stat: Howard has cashed this bet in all three CFP matchups, throwing for 289-plus yards in each game.
Quick picks
Egbuka over 5.5 receptions (+128): Given that I’m riding with Ohio State’s passing offence, I wanted to back at least one receiver. This is somewhat of a hedge against Notre Dame either locking up Smith or bracketing him the way Texas did:
Egbuka, a senior, is the go-to option for the Buckeyes on third down. He’s a sure-handed safety blanket that should get a fair share of looks on Monday night.
He’s only cashed this bet once in his past five games, but he also landed on exactly five catches three other times. In that five-game span, Egbuka has averaged 7.0 targets and 5.2 receptions.
Riley Leonard under 37.5 rushing yards (-117): Leonard has 167 rush attempts this year, which leads the way for the Irish, and the veteran quarterback will likely call his own number several times in the title game.
But volume isn’t enough of a sell for me to take the over on his yardage prop. After all, he turned 18 carries into just 36 yards against Penn State in the CFP semifinal.
Ohio State should be daring Leonard to throw and loading up the box to slow his legs.
Also, the Buckeyes have registered four or more sacks in all three playoff games — and sacks count against QB rushing yards.
Leonard has gone under this total in four of his past six games, averaging a paltry 3.6 yards per rush.
Picks made at 9:35 a.m. ET 01/17/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.