The NFL divisional round opens on Saturday afternoon in Kansas City, where the Chiefs host the Houston Texans.
The pregame narrative: I’m backing Kansas City, the AFC’s top seed, to win in my +410 SGP. A trio of prop bets, featuring C.J. Stroud, John Metchie and DeAndre Hopkins, round out this ticket.
Check out my Texans vs. Chiefs same-game parlay predictions.
Texans vs. Chiefs same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Stroud under 239.5 pass yards + Metchie over 24.5 rec. yards + Hopkins over 24.5 rec. yards + Chiefs ML (+410)
Stroud under 239.5 passing yards (-177): Stroud just snuck past this line when he faced the Chiefs in Week 15, inefficiently turning 39 pass attempts into 244 yards. But I think he’s poised to go under on Saturday.
Outdoor road games have been a thorn in Stroud’s side so far in his young career.
- 12 games (incl. one playoff game)
- 58.8% completion rate
- 190.8 yards/game
- 83.8 QB rating
Last year, he threw for just 175 yards in the divisional round against Baltimore. And he threw for 191.0 yards in five outdoor road games this year (excluding his abbreviated start against Tennessee in Week 18).
The Chiefs, who ranked No. 9 in total defence this year, should give Stroud some problems — and the sub-zero temperatures throughout the game won’t help, either.
Other parlay picks
Metchie over 24.5 receiving yards (-220): Nico Collins is the main man in Houston’s wide receiver room, but he can’t command all the targets.
Metchie has put together a healthy target share over his past four games, with 24 targets in that span. He and Collins led the Texans with eight targets apiece in the wild-card round.
In fairness, Metchie hasn’t done a ton with his recent influx of opportunities. But opportunities themselves are valuable, and this is not a very hefty yardage total.
If Metchie sees four-plus targets again — in what would be a fifth-straight game — he should absolutely cash this bet.
Hopkins over 24.5 receiving yards (-162): Hopkins was traded to the Chiefs in their time of need, with Marquise Brown and Rashee Rice sidelined. He’s been a steady contributor for KC, and I expect that to continue.
Since joining the Chiefs in Week 8, Hopkins has averaged 43.7 yards per game. He’s seen four-plus targets in nine of 10 games in that span, and he’s cashed this bet nine times, too.
Applying similar logic here as I did to the Metchie pick, four-plus targets is a stellar floor for a yardage bet this low.
Chiefs moneyline (-455): Steer clear of this pick if you’d like, but it bumps the SGP up from +310 to +410, and that’s compelling enough for me.
Kansas City is 8-0 at home this season. Its spotless home record includes a 27-19 win over Houston in Week 16.
I’ve already spoken to Stroud’s struggles in an outdoor road setting. The Chiefs are thoroughly well-rested and should roll into their seventh consecutive AFC championship game.
Picks made at 3:40 p.m. ET on 01/16/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.