The top teams in each conference clash on Thursday when the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Cleveland Cavaliers.
The pregame narrative: The Cavs won the first leg of this matchup, 129-122, in Cleveland on Jan. 8. But I’m expecting a better effort from the Thunder at home and am fading Evan Mobley while backing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Check out my Cavaliers vs. Thunder prop picks for Jan. 16.
Cavaliers vs. Thunder prop picks
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Best Bet: Mobley under 19.5 points (-112)
Mobley is in the midst of his best scoring season (19.0 PPG) and cleared this number against the Thunder just over a week ago with 21 points.
But I have good reason to fade the Cavaliers’ big man tonight.
This is a number he’s cleared more often than not, though just barely. Mobley is 19-18 against this line and has landed on exactly 20 or 21 points five times.
He’s shooting an efficient 57.7% from the field but doesn’t put up a ton of shots (12.6 per game).
Mobley hasn’t attempted more than 13 field goals in five straight games, which really limits his ceiling as a scorer — especially against a team like the Thunder.
OKC has the best defensive rating (102.9) and lowest opponent effective field goal percentage (49.9%) in the NBA.
I expect Mark Daigneault’s group to dial in defensively at home and limit Mobley tonight.
Key stat: The Thunder give up the second-fewest PPG to power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.
Quick pick
Gilgeous-Alexander over 1.5 threes (-136): Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the league in scoring (31.4), which has put him in pole position to win MVP.
The Canadian superstar has never been a big 3-point shooter and has reverted to being a mid-range assassin and elite finisher after attempting plenty of deep balls to start the season.
Still, I think this is a fair price to back SGA at tonight.
Cleveland has allowed the eighth-highest opponent 3-point rate (36.5%) in the NBA. It also allows the 12th-most 3s per game to opposing point guards.
Gilgeous-Alexander went 1-for-6 from deep against the Cavs in their last meeting, but that’s the type of volume I like to see.
He’s cleared this number in 23 of 39 starts (58.9%).
Picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET 01/16/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.