The Ohio State Buckeyes aim to cap off a dominant run through the College Football Playoff when they face the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in the national championship.
The pregame narrative: Ohio State looks like a team on a mission after blowing out a trio of quality opponents in the postseason. I like the Buckeyes to cover, but I also believe this lands under the projected total.
Check out my Ohio State vs. Notre Dame best bets for the CFP national championship on Jan. 20.
Ohio State vs. Notre Dame best bets
Go to full college football betting markets
Best Bet: Ohio State -8 (-110)
The standard line is -9.5, but it doesn’t cost much to buy a couple of extra points. The Buckeyes are on a take-no-prisoner run of terror, and I expect them to secure a multi-score win.
You can’t tell the story of Ohio State’s season without mentioning its inexplicable 13-10 loss to Michigan on Nov. 30.
This year’s Wolverines were a hollowed-out version of the squad that won last year’s national championship. There was no excuse for the Buckeyes to lose as 19.5-point home favourites.
But since then, Ohio State has looked like the type of war machine that roughly $20 million in NIL funds is supposed to buy.
Ohio State thrashed Tennessee, 42-17, at home in Columbus in the first round of the CFP. Up next was a rematch against then-unbeaten Oregon, in which the Buckeyes had the game won at half and cruised to a 41-21 win.
And finally, in what was nearly a true road venue at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, Ohio State handled Texas in a 14-point semifinal victory.
Notre Dame is a worthy opponent, but many of its typical advantages over other opponents don’t hold up against Ohio State.
- Coaching: Marcus Freeman is great, and he might field some NFL offers this winter. But Ohio State’s enviable coordinator tandem of Chip Kelly and Jim Knowles is at least on the same playing field.
- QB experience: Ohio State sees ND’s fourth-year quarterback, Riley Leonard, and raises it with fifth-year quarterback Will Howard.
- Offensive line: ND is down one starter, and another is questionable. Ohio State is at full strength on the line, and the Buckeyes allowed the ninth-fewest sacks in the country this year (0.9/game).
Ohio State comes in hotter, healthier and with more talent. Covering this number wouldn’t surprise anyone.
Key stat: Ohio State has won six of its past seven games by 14-plus points.
Quick picks
Under 46.5 points (-110): Once again, I’m buying a bit of cushion to deviate from the standard line. And with the top-two scoring defences set to take the field, why not?
Ohio State allowed 12.2 PPG this season. Since Week 5, eight of its 12 games have gone under 46.5 points.
Notre Dame allowed 14.3 PPG this season. Only six of its 15 games went under this number, but it never faced a defence quite like the one the Buckeyes wield.
And in fairness to the Fighting Irish, they have the personnel to slow down the Buckeyes’ offence to some extent.
Notre Dame’s pass defence ranks No. 1 in success rate and in EPA per play, per gameonpaper.com.
Ohio State’s offence, led by freshman phenom Jeremiah Smith and potential 2025 first-round draftee Emeka Egbuka, is largely built to win through the air.
With arguably the two best defences in the country and a notable clash of styles, I don’t expect a scoring explosion.
Picks made at 2:10 p.m. ET 01/06/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.