The Brooklyn Nets’ six-game West Coast swing continues on Wednesday night with a matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers.
The pregame narrative: Kawhi Leonard looks like a great value play on this 3s prop, with a modest over priced at plus money. On the Nets’ side of things, I think Ziaire Williams is worth fading as a scorer.
Check out my Nets vs. Clippers prop picks for Jan. 15.
Nets vs. Clippers prop picks
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Best Bet: Leonard over 1.5 threes (+143)
Leonard is only three games into his 2024-25 season after spending months recovering from a right knee injury. So we don’t have much to go off yet.
But this is a great price to back a talented 3-point shooter whose opportunities will hopefully start to tick up soon.
- Leonard has played between 19 and 21 minutes in his three games so far.
- He’s 5-for-13 (38.5%) from deep, cashing this bet in 2/3 games.
Leonard has a history of being an effective 3-point shooter, which is part of what I’m leaning into for this pick.
In his past six healthy seasons (i.e., since 2018-19), Leonard has averaged 2.0 threes on 5.1 attempts (39.5%). He’s averaged 1.7 threes on at least 37.1% shooting in each of those seasons individually, too.
Now he’ll face a Nets squad that has struggled to defend the perimeter this season. Brooklyn allows the third-highest opponent 3PT% in the NBA (37.9%).
Key stat: Since the start of last season, Leonard has cashed this bet in 47 of 71 games (66.2%).
Quick pick
Williams under 13.5 points (-104): Williams has spent almost half his season as a starter, and his numbers have seen a notable boost in that span.
Still, he’s not involved enough as a scorer for me to take the over on this line.
- Starter (13 games): 25.9 minutes, 12.2 points (9.4 FGA)
- Reserve (15 games): 19.9 minutes, 7.5 points (6.5 FGA)
Williams, in his first season with Brooklyn, has gone under this point total in nine of 13 starts.
That seems like the sensible prediction again, given that the Clippers allow the fifth-fewest points per game in the NBA.
Picks made at 3:20 p.m. ET 01/15/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.