Steph Curry and Paolo Banchero headline my NBA prop bets for Wednesday night.
The pregame narrative: Curry is a do-it-all star for the Golden State Warriors, and I like him to put up a solid rebounds/assists total tonight in Minnesota. But my best bet is on Brandon Miller, who I expect to shoot his way out of a small rough patch.
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Best bet: Brandon Miller 20+ points (-109)
I’d like to see Miller break out of a mini-slump, and that should happen at some point based on his shot volume.
In the past five games, the second-year small forward has struggled to fill the net:
- 17.2 PPG
- 38.2 FG%
- Under 19.5 points in 4/5 games
But in that span, he’s still attempted 15.2 shots per game — including 9.8 attempts from 3-point range. When a guy shoots that much, a 20-point night is never out of reach.
Miller was a machine against that number just before this little skid. He had a 12-game stretch in which he cashed this bet every time, averaging 27.0 points on 21.8 FGA.
So, yes, the shot attempts are down a bit in his more recent games. But not to the point where he can’t hit this mark.
Tonight, Miller and the Charlotte Hornets face the Utah Jazz. Utah allows the fifth-most points and the third-most attempted 3s in the league.
If Miller keeps firing, I like his chances of turning things around — especially in a plus matchup.
Key stat: Utah allows the fifth-most PPG to opposing small forwards (23.4), per Betting Pros.
Quick picks
Banchero 25+ points (-113): I wish I could ask Banchero what happened on Sunday. In a narrow win over the Philadelphia 76ers, he only attempted eight shots.
Banchero finished with 20 points thanks to some efficient shooting (5-of-8 from the floor, 9-of-11 from the free throw line), but that only adds to my puzzlement.
Why not keep shooting when it’s going well?
The third-year power forward was only in his second game back from an oblique injury, but that hadn’t slowed him down in this previous matchup.
Against a solid Milwaukee Bucks defence, Banchero had 34 points on 11-of-21 shooting (in just 27 minutes) on Jan. 10.
Banchero faces Milwaukee again tonight. Hopefully he starts to see a bit of a minutes uptick, but either way, I know he’s capable of cashing.
Curry over 10.5 rebounds/assists (-115): At 6-foot-2 and 185 pounds, Curry isn’t someone you’d expect to pull down a bunch of rebounds. But he’s been crushing it on the glass lately.
- 6+ rebounds in 6/7 games since Dec. 28.
- 5.1 RPG on the year
I don’t expect a huge rebounding total for Curry against the Minnesota Timberwolves, but that’s where his passing prowess comes in. Curry is averaging 6.1 assists this year, meaning he’s averaging 11.2 RA collectively.
In 31 games, Curry has cashed this bet 20 times (64.5%). That includes two of three meetings against the T-Wolves last month.
Draymond Green, who’s second on the Warriors in both rebounds and assists, is questionable due to an illness and a back injury. If he’s out, that could mean more opportunities for Curry.
Picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 01/15/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.