Anyone else in a Monday mood? Two of my three NBA prop bets for tonight’s action are fades.
The pregame narrative: Austin Reaves and Ja Morant both face tough matchups that they’ve struggled in before, while Julius Randle should take advantage of the downtrodden Washington Wizards.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 13.
NBA prop bets
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Best bet: Morant under 6.5 assists (-136)
Morant recently missed time with a shoulder injury, but that didn’t prevent him from firing at will against the Houston Rockets on Thursday.
Coming out of a five-game absence, Morant scored 27 points against Houston on 9-of-22 shooting. He only had three assists, which was his second-lowest total of the season.
Morant’s lowest assist total of the season? That came on Oct. 25, when he had two helpers … against the Rockets.
Given that Morant averages 7.5 assists per game, taking this under with extra juice is typically ill-advised. But Monday’s matchup suggests otherwise.
Houston allows the second-fewest assists per game to opposing point guards, per Betting Pros, as well as the second-fewest assists overall.
Defensive acumen has been the primary driver of Houston’s stellar season. The Rockets make life difficult on their opponents — especially in the backcourt — and I think Morant will struggle again tonight.
Key stat: Morant has gone under 6.5 assists in five of his past seven games, which includes a matchup against the Rockets.
Quick picks
Randle 8+ rebounds (+117): This pick asks for a full rebound more than Randle’s season average (7.0 RPG), but it’s a reasonable plus-money play in my view.
Randle and the Minnesota Timberwolves are facing a beaten-down Wizards squad that has lost five of its past six games by 12 or more points. Things are bleak in DC.
The Wizards, who got trounced at home last night, allow the most rebounds per game in the NBA. Positionally, they also allow the most to power forwards.
Randle has cashed this bet in six of his past 11 games, averaging 7.8 RPG in that span.
Reaves under 23.5 points/rebounds (-113): Reaves had a five-game stretch from Christmas Day through Jan. 3 where this line would’ve been far too low.
But outside of that heater, the under has been a more successful side this year.
- Reaves is averaging 18.3 points and 4.3 rebounds (22.6 PR).
- He’s gone under 23.5 PR in 21/31 games (67.7%).
In a matchup with Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Victor Wembanyama on the court, I’m not sure there’ll be many rebounds on the scrap heap for Reaves to grab.
The Wemby-era Spurs have already proven to be a tough matchup for Reaves, too.
In five games against Wemby’s Spurs, Reaves has hit this under four times while averaging 15.8 points and 4.2 rebounds.
Picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 01/13/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.