Denis Shapovalov aims to carry his success from the fall into the first Grand Slam of 2025.
The pregame narrative: Shapovalov’s aggressive play leads to inconsistent results. The Canadian has consistently done well against a familiar opponent in Roberto Bautista Agut, however, and I’m backing him to win with little resistance at Melbourne Park.
Check out our Bautista Agut vs. Shapovalov odds and best bet for their Australian Open match on Jan. 13.
Bautista Agut vs. Shapovalov Australian Open odds
Go to full Bautista Agut vs. Shapovalov betting markets.
| Betting markets | Betting odds |
| Bautista Agut to win | +188 |
| Shapovalov to win | -240 |
| Bautista Agut +4.5 games | -125 |
| Shapovalov -4.5 games | -103 |
| Over 38.5 games | -120 |
| Under 38.5 games | -107 |
Tennis odds as of 11:22 a.m. on 01/12/2025.
Best Bet: Shapovalov -1.5 sets (-120)
There are a handful of reasons to like Shapovalov in this match.
Firstly, his results since the final Grand Slam of 2024 are worth spotlighting. Shapovalov showed great resilience when he won the Belgrade Open in November. The Canadian fought through qualifiers in an impressive title run where he only lost one set.
Bautista Agut’s success in the fall is worth noting, too, as he won the European Open in October.
But there have been some developments since Bautista Agut’s tourney win that tip the scales in Shapovalov’s favour.
These two competitors battled at the end of October in a match that Shapovalov won in straight sets.
I wouldn’t read too much into that result if it was a one-off, but there’s a fairly significant sample size in this pair’s head-to-head history.
Shapovalov and Bautista Agut have met three times (twice in 2024) and Shapovalov has yet to lose a set.
Both of their 2024 duels were on hardcourts, which is notable given the setting for this upcoming contest.
Shapovalov boasts the better serve rating (34th vs. 49th), per ATPTour.com. I expect that to be the difference in this match.
Key stat: Shapovalov fired off 18 aces to Bautista Agut’s two in their most recent matchup.
Picks made at 11:45 a.m. ET on 01/12/2025.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.