Paolo Banchero looked fantastic in his return to the court two days ago, and now he’s headlining my Sunday NBA prop bets.
The pregame narrative: I like Banchero to clear his points/rebounds/assists prop in a home date against the Philadelphia 76ers. In the same 6 p.m. ET window, I’m backing Jarrett Allen and Trey Murphy to produce.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 12.
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Best bet: Banchero over 29.5 points/rebounds (-118)
After missing 34 games with an oblique injury, Banchero knocked the rust off immediately on Friday night in a triumphant return.
In just 26 minutes against the Milwaukee Bucks, Banchero’s stat line suggested he’d hardly skipped a beat:
- 34 points
- 7 rebounds
- 11-of-21 shooting (52.4%)
- 5-of-8 threes (62.5%)
The Bucks are a top-10 squad in terms of defensive rating. Tonight’s opponents, the 76ers, are a middling 16th in that category.
One risk for Banchero’s overall production is that the Magic and Sixers are two of the three slowest teams in the NBA. A measly 206-point projected total for tonight’s matchup reflects that.
But given how efficient Banchero was in his return — clearing this PR line with just his point total — he hopefully won’t need an excessive volume of opportunities to put up stats.
What really makes this a compelling pick is that Franz Wagner is still out for the Magic. Without his co-star, Banchero tends to run wild.
In 12 career games without Wagner, Banchero has averaged 24.2 points and 7.1 rebounds (31.3 PR).
Key stat: Banchero has the fifth-highest usage rate in the NBA (33.1%), ahead of top-notch scorers like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic and Victor Wembanyama.
Quick picks
Murphy over 17.5 points (-108): The New Orleans Pelicans are primarily composed of good-not-great players, and sometimes it’s difficult to discern which one(s) will shine on any given night.
But Murphy looks like that guy right now, and the Pelicans should continue to feed him the ball.
Over his past 12 games, Murphy is averaging 23.7 points. He’s cashed this bet 10 times.
No one in New Orleans attempts more 3s than Murphy (8.6/game), and he’ll likely need to fire away on Sunday against the Boston Celtics. Boston attempts 49.5 threes per game, easily pacing the league.
Murphy has missed the past three games with an ankle sprain but is listed as available for Sunday.
Allen over 24.5 points/rebounds (-112): Like Murphy, Allen is a player who’s hot right now that I’m looking to ride with.
The Cleveland Cavaliers centre has averaged 19.1 points and 11.3 rebounds (30.4 PR) over his past seven games, cashing this bet five times.
What’s been particularly encouraging in that span is Allen’s high floor as a rebounder. The 6-foot-11 centre has nine-plus rebounds in seven consecutive games.
Tonight’s opponents, the Indiana Pacers, allow the ninth-most rebounds per game to centres (15.7), per Betting Pros. If Allen hovers around the double-digit mark for rebounds, he should do enough as a scorer to cash this.
Picks made at 10:50 a.m. ET on 01/12/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.