In the final NBA matchup of the night, the Phoenix Suns host the Charlotte Hornets.
The pregame narrative: Sunday’s game in the desert has rock fight potential, as both teams have been hitting unders at a high clip lately. Along with an alt total, this +285 SGP features prop bets on Devin Booker and Brandon Miller.
Check out my Hornets vs. Suns same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 12.
Hornets vs. Suns predictions
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Parlay: Under 230.5 points + Booker 6+ assists + Miller over 17.5 points (+285)
Under 230.5 points (-235): Charlotte’s combination of slow pace and inefficient offence has made it the most under-friendly team in the NBA.
- 29th in offensive rating
- 22nd in possessions per game
- Unders are 23-12-0
Phoenix also plays slow (23rd in possessions/game) and is on an ironclad run of unders lately. Since Dec. 15, unders are 10-1-2 in Suns games.
That includes the matchup between these teams last Tuesday, which finished with 219 total points.
Each of the Hornets’ past eight games has finished with 223 total points or fewer. This looks like a safe number to me.
SGP legs
Booker 6+ assists (-360): Booker exploded for 39 points when he faced the Hornets last week, but that wasn’t his only statistical highlight. The standout guard added 10 assists, too.
Though he’s listed as a shooting guard, Booker is actually the Suns’ primary passer. He averages 6.9 assists per game, as well as 12.0 potential assists (i.e., passes that lead directly to shots).
Over his past 11 games, Booker has cashed this bet nine times while averaging 7.9 APG.
Miller over 17.5 points (-132): This is the riskiest leg of the ticket — made even riskier by the alt under — but it really doesn’t feel like much of an ask for Miller.
- He’s averaging 21.2 PPG on the season.
- Over his past 16 games, Miller has cashed this bet 14 times.
- Miller averages 18.3 FGA and 11.0 3PA.
One of Miller’s toughest nights of the season came against the Suns, as he shot just 5-of-16 from the floor and finished with 13 points.
Given that the Suns aren’t known as a particularly strong defensive team (22nd in defensive rating), I’m comfortable chalking that up to a blip on the radar.
Picks made at 11:40 a.m. on 01/12/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.