I have three player props worth taking for Sunday night’s NFL wild-card round matchup.
The pregame narrative: This weekend’s highest projected total comes in a game featuring the Washington Commanders and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I’m backing Tampa’s Bucky Irving and Jalen McMillan to have big games while fading Baker Mayfield.
Check out my Commanders vs. Buccaneers prop picks for the wild-card round.
Commanders vs. Buccaneers prop picks
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Best bet: Irving over 88.5 rushing yards (-114)
When you look back on Irving’s rookie season, it’s hard to believe he was a fourth-round selection.
Irving paced all rookies in rushing yards (1,122) and rushing touchdowns (eight).
As a result, it didn’t take long for Irving to pass Rachaad White as Tampa Bay’s feature running back.
Irving has averaged 107.8 rushing yards over the last five full games (not including Week 13, where he exited the game in the second quarter due to injury). He cleared the 100-yard mark in three of those contests.
The former Oregon Duck kicks off his NFL playoff career in a great spot against one of the worst rush defences in the league.
The Commanders have allowed fewer than 100 rushing yards just four times this season, and when you hear the teams, you’ll understand why:
- Panthers
- Cowboys
- Titans
- Saints (without Alvin Kamara)
Key stat: Washington’s defence allows the third-most rushing yards per game (137.5).
Quick picks
Mayfield under 243.5 passing yards (-115): Mayfield is having a career year with highs in passing yards and touchdowns. With that said, I don’t believe he can keep it up in this matchup.
Washington head coach Dan Quinn has had a consistent defensive strategy for most of the season. The Commanders do a good job of limiting big plays downfield, but in return, they’re susceptible to damage in the run game.
As a result, they own the third-best passing defence (189.5 yards/game) and rank 13th in total defence (327.9 total yards/game).
The Commanders have given up over 242 yards through the air just three times this season, and each of those instances was before Week 7.
I expect Tampa to be playing from in front, which would be a plus for this play.
If the Bucs are ahead, they should pound the rock and control the ground game, keeping the ball away from Jayden Daniels, the Offensive Rookie of the Year frontrunner.
Mayfield’s NFL-leading 16 interceptions adds extra incentive for Tampa Bay to establish the run early and wear down Washington’s defence.
McMillan anytime touchdown scorer (+160): McMillan has been another rookie sensation for this Buccaneers offence.
The 2024 third-round pick started sluggish this season, but he has come on strong in the last five weeks. He’s racked up 316 yards over that stretch, after just 145 yards in his first eight games.
McMillan has been most impressive in the red zone. Four of his eight touchdowns have come inside the 20-yard line, and he’s caught seven of his eight red zone targets, per Fantasy Pros.
The rookie wide receiver has found the back of the end zone in five straight games, scoring seven touchdowns in that span.
Picks made at 3:23 p.m. ET on 01/11/2025.
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