The first matchup of Sunday’s NFL wild-card tripleheader features the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos.
The pregame narrative: Buffalo has dominated at home this season and looks poised to keep up its winning ways in Western New York. My +410 SGP features an alt spread, an alt total and player props for Dalton Kincaid and Bo Nix.
Check out my Broncos vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions.
Broncos vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Bills -3.5 + Over 43.5 points + Kincaid over 3.5 receptions + Nix under 259.5 passing yards (+410)
Bills -3.5 (-230): With an MVP-calibre quarterback and wins over both conference’s top seeds, it’s good to be Buffalo right now.
Bills fans have been treated to one thrashing after another on home turf this season, and that could very well be what happens on Sunday.
Buffalo went 8-0 at home this season, winning by an average margin of 16.6 points at Highmark Stadium.
This is nothing new for the Bills, who’ve been the NFL’s best home team since 2020. In that span, they are 39-8 at home with a +11.7 average point differential.
Denver is 1-3 ATS as a road underdog since the start of November.
Other parlay picks
Over 43.5 points (-200): Overs were collectively 22-11-1 in Bills and Broncos games this season, and this teased-down total is a perfectly attainable line for them to clear.
- BUF went over 43.5 points in 8/8 home games (average total was 51.9).
- DEN went over 43.5 points in 7/9 games since Nov. 3 (including 4/5 road games).
Denver ranks No. 1 in defensive EPA per play, according to rbsdm.com, but that hasn’t kept it from playing in some track meets. And against Buffalo’s scorching offence (No. 2 in offensive EPA/play), I expect plenty of points.
Over the previous three postseasons, five of Buffalo’s six games totalled at least 48 points.
Kincaid over 3.5 receptions (-137): Kincaid suffered a knee injury in Week 10 and missed the ensuing three games. He played in three straight games after that on a below-average snap share.
All the while, Buffalo was coasting to a high seed in the AFC. After resting in a meaningless game last Sunday, Kincaid should be a lot closer to full go against the Broncos. He was a full practice participant all week, after all.
Despite limited snaps since his return, Kincaid was used plenty in Weeks 15-17:
- 28.6% target share on routes run
- 5.3 targets/game
- 4+ catches in 2/3 games
Denver allowed the ninth-most receptions to tight ends this year (5.6/game). Kincaid is a safety blanket for Josh Allen, and with additional snaps he’s a strong play at this number.
Nix under 259.5 passing yards (-286): Even if the Broncos chip in on my alt over prediction, I don’t see Nix hitting this yardage target.
Nix played six outdoor road games this year, and none of them were pretty.
- 178.5 pass yards/game
- Under 225 passing yards in 6/6 games
Given that Nix only averaged 222.1 pass yards per game overall, this line would’ve been suspect regardless. But in Sunday’s hostile road environment, he’s well worth a fade.
At home, the Bills held seven of eight opposing QBs to fewer than 259.5 passing yards (the exception was Drake Maye, 261 yards).
Picks made at 2:38 p.m. ET on 01/11/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.