There are only four NBA games on Saturday, and my focus is on the two late ones.
The pregame narrative: In Minnesota, I like Anthony Edwards to continue firing at will from the 3-point line — but Zach Edey looks like a fade. And in Portland, look for visiting forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. to continue to produce from a starting role.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 11.
NBA prop bets
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Best bet: Jaquez over 18.5 points/assists (-113)
The Miami Heat are beginning to see what life is like without Jimmy Butler, and for an inexperienced player like Jaquez, the future is now.
The 2023 first-round draftee has stepped back into a starting role in the past three games and handled himself quite well:
- Jan. 6 (at Kings): 16 points, 10 assists
- Jan. 7 (at Warriors): 18 points, 1 assist
- Jan. 9 (at Jazz): 20 points, 7 assists
In that span, Jaquez is shooting 55.3% from the floor and 40.0% from 3-point range (on 3.3 attempts/game).
Though he’s only averaging 9.5 points and 2.7 assists (12.2 PA) on the season, it’s not fair to use those numbers as a yardstick for Jaquez tonight. He sees more opportunities as a starter, naturally, and that puts this prop line within his range.
In seven starts this year, Jaquez has averaged 15.0 points and 3.7 assists (18.7 PA).
The Portland Trail Blazers should be a good matchup for Jaquez to stay hot. Portland ranks 26th in defensive rating and allows the fourth-highest opponent field goal percentage (47.7%).
Also, opposing small forwards average 4.4 assists against Portland (fourth-most in the NBA), per Betting Pros.
Key stat: Jaquez has gone over 18.5 points/assists in five of seven starts this year.
Quick picks
Edey under 15.5 points/rebounds (-113): After missing a couple of games due to migraine issues, Zach Edey has yet to bounce back in the box score.
Tonight’s matchup against the Minnesota Timberwolves likely won’t make life any easier on him.
Minnesota is a lock-down defensive squad, holding opponents to the fourth-fewest points and eighth-fewest rebounds per game.
The T-Wolves have defended the paint particularly well in recent games, too. Their tied for the third-fewest opponent points in the paint over their past 15 games.
Edey has gone under this total in three of four games since his return, averaging 5.5 points and 4.8 rebounds. The 7-foot-4 Canadian is still favoured to win Rookie of the Year, but that doesn’t mean he’s in for a big night on Saturday.
Edwards over 3.5 threes (-130): Edwards is a volume shooter from beyond the arc, and the Memphis Grizzlies seem to encourage that sort of behaviour.
Memphis’ opponents attempt 39.6 threes per game, which is the fourth-most in the NBA. That has only equated to a 34.3% shooting percentage, but I still think this makes sense as a volume play.
- Edwards has attempted 11+ threes in four straight games, cashing this bet each time.
- He’s averaging 4.3 threes on a career-high 10.0 attempts this year.
Last game, Edwards went 4-of-11 from deep against the Orlando Magic, who allow a league-low 30.9 attempted threes per game.
Edwards might just be matchup-proof.
Picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET on 01/11/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.