For the second time in three weeks, the Baltimore Ravens host the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The pregame narrative: The AFC North rivals square off in the wild-card round with plenty of ill will. I’m backing Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews and Jaylen Warren props on Saturday night.
Check out my Steelers vs. Ravens prop picks for the wild-card round.
Steelers vs. Ravens prop picks
Go to full NFL playoff betting markets.
Best bet: Jackson over 217.5 passing yards (-113)
There’ a lot at stake for Jackson and the Ravens.
The two-time NFL MVP is a regular season has been criticized for his lack of performance when it matters.
Jackson has a career regular season record of 70-24 as a starter but is 2-4 in the playoffs.
The closest he came to Super Bowl appearance was last year, when his Ravens (the No. 1 seed) lost, 17-10, to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC championship game.
But the former Louisville Cardinal has looked different this year as he chases his third MVP.
- Jackson put up an insane 41:4 TD-to-INT ratio.
- That’s the fourth-best mark in a single season by quarterbacks with 10-plus starts, per Statmuse.
- Jackson also rushed for 915 yards and four touchdowns.
Pittsburgh has seen its fair share of Jackson and plays similarly against him nearly every time. The Steelers force him to stay in the pocket and make throws, rather than letting him run all over the field.
In the two games this year, the Steelers contained Jackson to 68 rush yards, but he threw for exactly 207 passing yards in each contest.
Jackson’s 4,172 yards through the air this season marked a career high and I anticipate this trend to continue in the playoffs.
Key stat: Jackson cleared this line in 11 of 17 games.
Quick picks
Warren over 21.5 receiving yards (-112): It’s pretty clear Pittsburgh has a power back and a receiving back. Warren fits the ladder.
The Steelers may find trouble running the ball as Baltimore owns the No. 1 rush defence in the NFL (80.1 yards/game). And if they fall behind early, that adds an extra layer of difficulty.
Aside from Russell Wilson’s moonball attempts, Pittsburgh will likely use short-yardage passing plays through the middle of the field, with Baltimore’s talented corners lining up on the outside.
That’s the dream scenario for Warren to make his mark.
The third-year running back has cashed this bet in six of his last nine games.
In his two meetings versus the Ravens, he combined for 71 receiving yards, clearing the line both times.
Andrews anytime touchdown scorer (+140): As the regular season rolled along, Andrews’ production rolled along with it.
His part in the offence increased every week. Andrews went scoreless through the first five games but finished the season with a career-high 11 touchdowns.
Andrews has found the back of the end zone in six straight games and leads all tight ends in red zone touchdowns (10) this season, according to Fantasy Pros.
The former third-round pick has yet to score a postseason TD, but I expect that streak to come to an end.
Picks made at 4:30 p.m. ET on 01/10/2025.
