For the second consecutive Friday, the Oklahoma City Thunder square off against the New York Knicks.
The pregame narrative: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Brunson are two of the best point guards in the game, and I’ve got prop bets on both of them tonight. I’m also taking the over on Isaiah Hartenstein’s rebounds/assists prop.
Check out my Thunder vs. Knicks prop picks for Jan. 10.
Thunder vs. Knicks prop picks
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Best Bet: Brunson under 23.5 points (-110)
The Thunder are about as tough of a matchup as Brunson could face right now, and that’s the main reason I’m looking to fade him.
- In their past 15 games, the Thunder have the NBA’s No. 1 defensive rating (102.7).
- OKC has also allowed the fewest points per game (103.1) and the lowest opponent field goal percentage (43.2%) in that span.
- Point guards are scoring just 21.3 PPG vs. OKC this year, which is the lowest average in the league, per Betting Pros.
The Thunder are undersized, but they make up for it with quickness and aggressiveness on defence. No team has forced more turnovers than OKC this year (18.7 per game).
Last week, Brunson scored 22 points against the Thunder on 9-of-23 shooting. Not great.
Though he’s averaging 25.0 PPG on the season, this looks like a solid spot to bet on Brunson turning in a below-average performance.
Key stat: Brunson is averaging 21.0 PPG at home this season, hitting this under in nine of 16 games.
Quick picks
Hartenstein over 16.5 rebounds/assists (-110): Hartenstein feasted against the Knicks last Friday, snagging 14 rebounds to go with seven assists (21 RA).
Is there any extra motivation for the 7-footer to perform against his old team? Maybe, but that’s not really what this is about.
Hartenstein should be the Thunder’s primary rebounder on a nightly basis (at least while Chet Holmgren is out). He’s four-plus inches taller than each of OKC’s other rotation players.
In the first Thunder/Knicks game of the season, Hartenstein and Knicks centre Karl-Anthony Towns accounted for 36 of the game’s 83 rebounds (43.4%). And with KAT listed as questionable tonight, even more of those boards could funnel to Hartenstein.
Keep in mind that Hartenstein is an unselfish big, too. He averages the second-most passes per game on OKC and has four-plus assists in six of his past seven.
Gilgeous-Alexander over 5.5 assists (+100): Hopefully Hartenstein isn’t hogging all the assists, because this is a very playable number for SGA.
Though he’s averaging 30-plus points for a third straight season, the Canadian superstar still dishes the rock plenty.
Gilgeous-Alexander averages 6.1 assists per game and has cleared this total in six of his past eight — including a seven-assist effort against the Knicks on Jan. 3.
He’s also averaging 12.5 potential assists per game, which equates to his total passes that lead directly to a shot.
For context, all 25 NBA players averaging at least 11.0 potential assists per game are also averaging at least 5.5 assists.
Picks made at 10:56 a.m. ET 01/10/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.