A pair of star quarterbacks headline my NFL wild-card prop picks for this weekend’s slate.
The pregame narrative: Josh Allen has never seen an open patch of turf he didn’t want to run through, and I think the over on his rushing yards prop is a great play for Sunday. I’m also taking overs involving Jayden Daniels and Isaiah Likely.
Check out my NFL prop picks for the 2025 wild-card action.
NFL prop picks
Go to full NFL playoff betting markets.
Best bet: Allen over 41.5 rushing yards (-112)
Welcome back to the playoff Josh Allen experience.
Allen can turn into a two-legged battering ram in any game against any opponent.
But he’s demonstrated a greater willingness to do that when the postseason begins.
| Situation | Rush attempts/game | Rush yards/game |
| Regular season (111 GP) | 6.8 | 37.3 |
| Playoffs (10 GP) | 8.3 | 56.3 |
Allen tends to obliterate this yardage number in the postseason, not just clear it. He has 65-plus rush yards in five of his past seven playoff games.
The Denver Broncos were one of the toughest teams to run against this year. Their defence ranked No. 2 in rush success rate and No. 4 in EPA per rush, according to rbsdm.com.
But in a way, that makes me feel even better about this pick.
There’s a chance that James Cook and the Bills’ traditional run game can’t get going. Allen will likely have some scripted runs, too, but he’s also an expert at creating with his legs in off-schedule plays.
Look for Allen to show up as a strong playoff runner like usual.
Key stat: In two playoff games last year (both at home), Allen rushed 20 times for 146 yards and three TDs. He cashed this prop both times.
Other prop picks
Likely over 27.5 receiving yards (-118): The Baltimore Ravens won’t have their top receiving target, Zay Flowers, available on Saturday night.
That should open doors for some other options, and I think Likely is a guy to key in on.
Baltimore loves using its tight ends as receivers, evidenced by the fact that Mark Andrews and Likely ranked third and fourth on the team, respectively, in both targets and yards this season.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are a tight-end-friendly matchup, too, as they’ve allowed 6.2 catches per game to opposing TEs (tied for second-most in the NFL).
Likely has 104 yards through two games against Pittsburgh this year and has cashed this bet in three straight head-to-head meetings.
Daniels over 287.5 passing/rushing yards (-114): Daniels made his NFL debut against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, flashing with 88 rushing yards on 16 carries.
He completed 17 of 24 passes that game, too, but fell short of this line with 272 passing/rushing yards in total.
Still, it was a promising start for what turned into a Rookie-of-the-Year-calibre season.
Aside from his Week 18 start, in which Daniels rested for the second half, the ex-LSU quarterback has cleared this total in four of his past five games — averaging 314.8 passing/rushing yards in those games.
The Bucs’ defence ranks 27th in dropback success rate and 19th in EPA per dropback.
Daniels is dangerous as a runner, but he should find success through the air in this matchup, too.
NFL picks made at 11:48 a.m. on 01/10/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.