The College Football Playoff is back on Thursday night with a semifinal matchup between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Penn State Nittany Lions.
The pregame narrative: One team will emerge from the Orange Bowl and earn a berth in the national championship game. Instead of picking a side, my +390 SGP includes an alt under to go with prop picks on Jordan Faison, Jeremiyah Love and Drew Allar.
Check out my Notre Dame vs. Penn State same-game parlay predictions for the semifinal CFP matchup on Jan. 9.
Notre Dame vs. Penn State predictions
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Parlay: Under 50.5 points + Faison 30+ receiving yards + Love 30+ rushing yards + Allar under 219.5 passing/rushing yards (+390)
Under 50.5 points (-240): My favourite straight wager for this game is the under on the standard line, so I had to work a teased-up under into this SGP.
Notre Dame and Penn State both wield top-10 scoring defences, allowing a collective 29.4 PPG.
Their defences also seem to thrive where it’ll matter most on Thursday, too:
- ND has 190+ rush yards in 10/14 games … but PSU hasn’t allowed 190 rush yards to any team this season.
- Allar has a 67.4% completion rate for PSU … but ND has the lowest opponent completion rate in the country (50.6%).
Oh, and unders are 2-0 for both of these teams in the CFP so far.
Other parlay picks
Faison 30+ receiving yards (-215): After being used sparingly in the first eight weeks of the season, something changed for Faison against Navy on Oct. 26.
Since that game, Faison has been a consistently productive weapon in the Fighting Irish’s offence:
- 4+ targets in 5/7 games
- 2+ catches in 7/7 games
- 42.3 yards/game
Faison’s best work has come in the playoffs, where he has 11 catches for 135 yards. He’s cashed this bet both times.
The sophomore receiver has been reliable for Notre Dame and should continue to see looks — especially if the run game breaks down against a ferocious Penn State front.
Love 30+ rushing yards (-245): Speaking of Notre Dame’s run game … Love is perfectly capable of clearing this line even if things don’t go swimmingly.
The primary risk with Love is that he tweaked his knee during the CFP quarterfinal round, finishing with just six carries for 19 yards. But there’ve been some encouraging reports about Love leading up to this game.
- Though Love was seen wearing a knee brace in practice during the week, he wasn’t listed on the injury report.
- ND coach Marcus Freeman said Love “had a good week of practice” and that he’ll be “good to go.”
Love has cashed this bet in 12 of 14 games, averaging 76.9 yards on the year. Can he scrounge together half his usual production in a game the Irish have to have? I think so.
Allar under 219.5 passing/rushing yards (-186): I’ve already stated my case for the under in this game, but even if Penn State puts up points, it won’t necessarily need a big effort from Allar.
The Nittany Lions have scored 31-plus points in four straight games, and Allar has gone under this number in three of them.
Allar’s toughest test this year came against Ohio State, and he didn’t fare well. The junior QB completed 12 of 20 passes for 146 yards while adding 31 on the ground.
Notre Dame is in the same tier of defence as Ohio State. The Irish rank No. 1 in defensive EPA per pass, defensive pass success rate and defensive net EPA, per gameonpaper.com.
Picks made at 2:45 p.m. ET on 01/09/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.