I have two player props for the College Football Playoff semifinal between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Penn State Nittany Lions on Thursday night.
The pregame narrative: In the Orange Bowl, the Nittany Lions will have to rely on the passing game and I expect wideout Harrison Wallace to be active. Nevertheless, I see scenarios where quarterback Drew Allar throws an interception against a dynamic secondary.
Check out my Notre Dame vs. Penn State prop picks for the Orange Bowl on Jan. 9.
Notre Dame vs. Penn State prop picks
Go to full college football betting markets
Best Bet: Harrison Wallace III over 41.5 receiving yards (-121)
Wallace’s numbers may not stand out every week, but he’s been a reliable downfield weapon for Allar.
Against Boise State, the junior receiver caught three passes for 37 yards with Penn State holding a lead and opting for a run-heavy attack.
For this game, I expect more emphasis on the passing game with the Nittany Lions as small underdogs.
It’s worth noting that Notre Dame’s stellar secondary is allowing just 167.4 passing yards per game, fifth-best in the nation.
Wallace, fortunately, gets a favourable matchup at the right corner, lined up against a struggling Christian Gray.
- Against USC on Nov. 30, he allowed eight catches for 130 receiving yards and two touchdowns.
- Against Georgia last Thursday, he allowed a 67-yard completion to Arian Smith.
I trust that Allar, who has displayed flashes of brilliance, can find some rhythm in the passing game and seek out Wallace to generate explosive plays.
Key stat: Wallace has exceeded 41.5 receiving yards in nine of his last 11 games.
Quick pick
Allar 1+ interceptions (-110): More emphasis on the passing game could lead to a costly mistake from Penn State’s quarterback.
Allar has only thrown seven picks on the season, with his last coming in the Big Ten Championship against Oregon.
But he faces his toughest test, up against a formidable Fighting Irish defence.
- Notre Dame generates the fifth-most turnovers (2.1 on average) in the nation.
- The secondary has an interception in six of their last eight games.
Allar possesses the arm strength that translates to the NFL, but accuracy has been a concern at times. He ranks outside the top 10 in pass completion rate (67.4%).
With a national championship berth at stake, I say there’s value in backing Allar to throw an interception.
Picks made at 2:21 p.m. ET 01/08/2025.
