The Toronto Raptors put their struggling defence to the test on Monday against a hungry Milwaukee Bucks team.
The pregame narrative: Milwaukee has dropped four of its past five games but now faces a Toronto defence that has been arguably the worst in the league in recent weeks. I like Damian Lillard as a scorer, and I’m backing Scottie Barnes to pile up assists.
Check out my Bucks vs. Raptors prop picks for Jan. 6.
Bucks vs. Raptors prop picks
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Best Bet: Lillard over 23.5 points (-129)
Toronto has been getting steamrolled on defence recently, so I feel compelled to back someone to put up points for the Bucks.
In their past 15 games, here’s where the Raptors rank on the defensive side:
- 30th in points (121.3/game)
- 30th in free throw attempts (26.5)
- 29th in defensive rating (118.7)
- 29th in rebounding rate (48.3%)
Lillard, who’s averaging 24.7 PPG this year, looks like a strong candidate to take advantage of this matchup.
Over his past 13 games, the veteran point guard has cashed this bet nine times. He also has 30-plus points in four of his past five matchups against Toronto, dating back to January 2023.
One of the nice things about backing Lillard as a scorer is that his stellar free throw shooting can mask a rough night from the field. He ranks No. 4 all-time in free throw percentage (89.8%) and averages 6.8 attempts per game.
Given how often Toronto is sending opponents to the line right now, Lillard should lean into that aspect of his game if needed.
Key stat: The Raptors allow the eighth-most points per game to opposing point guards (25.1), per Betting Pros.
Quick pick
Barnes over 5.5 assists (-106): Barnes is averaging 6.6 assists per game this season. That alone makes this pick somewhat compelling to me.
Furthermore, with RJ Barrett (questionable) potentially back in the lineup, Barnes might have an additional scoring outlet to feed. The Barnes-to-Barrett connection has worked well in the past.
In their past 25 games together, Barnes has averaged 7.5 assists and cashed this bet 19 times (76.0%).
This season as a whole, Barnes has gone over 5.5 assists in 14 of 22 games (63.6%).
Picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET 01/06/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.