I’ve got one running back, one quarterback and one receiver featured in my NFL Week 18 TD picks.
The pregame narrative: In the 4 p.m. slate, Isaac Guerendo should have plenty of opportunities to score in a plus matchup. Earlier on, both Jayden Daniels and Adam Thielen are worthwhile plays based on recent production.
Check out the best NFL Week 18 TD picks for Sunday’s football games.
NFL Week 18 TD picks
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Best bet: Guerendo anytime TD (+125)
You may not have known who Guerendo was when the NFL season began … but here he is as the last man standing in the San Francisco 49ers’ running back room.
With Christian McCaffrey, Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell on injured reserve, Guerendo has risen to the top of the depth chart.
Over the past four weeks, Guerendo’s numbers are solid:
- 3 TDs
- 6 red zone carries
- 79.5 scrimmage yards/game
On the season, Guerendo ranks in the 99th percentile in average yards after contact (4.0), per Rotowire. And now he draws a juicy matchup against the Arizona Cardinals.
According to rbsdm.com, Arizona’s defence ranks 25th in EPA per rush and rush success rate. Back in October, San Francisco rushed for 153 yards against the Cardinals at 5.9 yards per carry.
Mason did most of the damage, but now it’s Guerendo’s show.
Keep in mind that this is a meaningless game for both sides. The 49ers should lean on their rookie, especially with QB Brock Purdy out and other key contributors dealing with injuries (George Kittle, Deebo Samuel).
Key stat: Guerendo has five carries inside the 10-yard line over the past three weeks.
Quick picks
Daniels anytime TD (+138): Daniels ran all over the Dallas Cowboys earlier this season, and he’s far from the only player to do that.
In Week 12, Daniels rushed seven times for 74 yards and a touchdown. On the season, Dallas has given up a league-high 24 rushing TDs.
Daniels hasn’t rushed for a touchdown in three straight games, but his overall output in that span (274 rush yards on 36 attempts) is superb.
Also, he has three-plus red zone carries in three of his past four games.
Thielen anytime TD (+175): Thielen is finishing his age-34 season strong, and he’s clearly the most reliable red zone target for the Carolina Panthers right now.
The 11-year vet has put on a clinic over his past five games:
- 4 TDs
- 1+ red zone targets in 4/5 games
- 6+ targets in 5/5 games
- 5+ catches in 5/5 games
Xavier Legette has only been targeted in the red zone in one of Carolina’s past five games, and tailback Raheem Blackshear was abysmal last week in his first start (eight rushes, 20 yards).
If the Panthers get into the prime scoring area, expect Thielen to be Bryce Young’s primary option.
Picks made at 1:49 p.m. ET on 01/03/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.