Two guards and Bam Adebayo make up tonight’s top prop picks for Thursday’s six-game NBA slate.
The pregame narrative: An Austin Reaves play is the best bet and I’m also backing his former teammate D’Angelo Russell. Lastly, I like the Miami Heat’s Adebayo on a combo market.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Jan. 2.
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Best bet: Reaves over 30.5 PRA (-118)
Reaves is on a heater and his Los Angeles Lakers get a favourable matchup to close out tonight’s NBA action.
The fourth-year guard is having a career-best season, averaging 18.3 points per game as a full-time starter.
Reaves averaged 22.1 PPG in eight December games, contributing 7.8 assists and 6.3 rebounds.
Even surrounded by Anthony Davis and LeBron James, there’s clearly room for Reaves — the team’s most active 3-point shooter who’s getting 34.5 minutes a night.
Thursday’s assignment comes against the Portland Trail Blazers, who have been torched by opposing backcourts this season.
- Portland surrenders the third-most points to point guards, per Betting Pros.
- The Blazers allow the fourth-most points to shooting guards.
- The team is 29th in opponent 3-point percentage.
That all bodes well for Reaves, who’s coming off a monster 35-point, 10-assist, nine-rebound effort.
Key stat: The 26-year-old is averaging 29.0 points, 12.0 assists and 8.3 rebounds over his last three games.
Quick picks
Russell over 15.5 points (-115): There’s big blowout potential here, but that might not impact Russell as much as others, like Milwaukee Bucks stars Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard.
Milwaukee is a 13-point home favourite as of Thursday afternoon and should dismantle the Brooklyn Nets, who are 2-8 over their last 10 and 25th in the NBA in defensive rating.
Russell’s second game with the Nets following a trade from the Lakers will come on a back-to-back after excelling in a loss to the Toronto Raptors last night.
- 22 points in 25 minutes
- 9-of-13 from the field
- 2-of-6 from deep
Russell was wildly inconsistent with the Lakers, seeing his role reduced in what turned into a poor fit.
But he’s always been a scorer and threat from the outside, averaging at least 15.5 points a season in every year outside of his rookie campaign.
Russell should have more rope and opportunity in Brooklyn, and volume alone will have him flirt with this number most nights.
The veteran should have the ball in his hands a lot and tonight he’ll do it against a Bucks team that has struggled to defend guards.
Adebayo over 29.5 points/rebounds (-120): The Heat face the Indiana Pacers and Adebayo has punished them twice already this season.
- Nov. 15: 30 points, 11 boards
- Nov. 17: 28 points, 8 boards
Adebayo’s scoring has been inconsistent, as he’s averaging his lowest output (16.4/game) since the 2019-20 season.
But he’s been a strong rebounder (9.9/game) and centres have had their way on the glass with the undersized Pacers.
Indiana allows the fifth-most boards to the position and is 24th in points allowed in the paint.
The Heat are on a back-to-back but this is a good matchup for the three-time all-star.
Picks made at 1:35 p.m. ET on 01/02/2025.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.