We’ve reached Week 18, meaning this is the last week of the NFL regular season.
The latest: Much of the playoff picture is settled but there’s one open slot remaining in each conference. One spot will go to the winner of the NFC South, while three AFC teams are vying for the postseason.
Find out how our staff is betting on the action with our NFL Week 18 ATS picks and predictions for every game.
NFL Week 18 ATS picks
NorthStar Bets’ Jordan Horrobin, Avery Perri and Chris Toman offer up their NFL Week 18 ATS picks for every game.
NFL odds as of 11 a.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 2, 2024.
Click odds from any game to add selections to your betslip.
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NFL Saturday doubleheader
Browns vs. Ravens (Saturday, Jan. 4: 4:30 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Baltimore -17.5
Perri says: Baltimore will win on Saturday but banking 17.5 points in a divisional game is too hard to pass up. Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been awful and it looks like Bailey Zappe might get some reps at quarterback for the Browns. Cleveland has covered this number in 13 of its last 15 against Baltimore and beat the Ravens this year as 7.5-point dogs. Just plug your nose and take the points.
Pick: Browns +17.5
Bengals vs. Steelers (Saturday, Jan. 2: 8 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Cincinnati -1.5
Perri says: Cincinnati needs a win to stay alive while Pittsburgh has its playoff spot secured. That said, Mike Tomlin won’t be resting his starters as the Steelers look to build some momentum by snapping a three-game losing streak. The Bengals’ defence has let it down all year and Pittsburgh put up 44 points against it in Week 13. I’ll take the Steelers to win with a sizeable rest advantage.
Pick: Steelers +1.5
NFL Week 18 ATS picks: The early Sunday slate
Bills vs. Patriots (Sunday, Jan. 5: 1 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Buffalo -2.5
Horrobin says: Only one team — New England — has something to play for here. A loss would mean the Patriots secure the No. 1 pick in this year’s draft. Do I think the players will intentionally punt this game? Of course not. But they’ve already failed to cover this spread in 12 of 16 games, so a full effort isn’t necessarily a concern.
Pick: Bills -2.5
Panthers vs. Falcons (Sunday, Jan. 5: 1 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Atlanta -8
Horrobin says: Before we rewrite Bryce Young’s story, can we see one decent result on the road? Carolina has averaged 13.0 PPG in Young’s 12 career road starts, losing eight of those by 14-plus points. Michael Penix Jr. showed flashes of brilliance in a tough matchup against the Commanders last week and should have a softer landing at home.
Pick: Falcons -8
Bears vs. Packers (Sunday, Jan. 5: 1 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Green Bay -10
Horrobin says: There’s a risk that Green Bay won’t play its starters for the entire game, but that only seems likely if the team gets out to a big lead. I can’t back a Chicago team that limps into Lambeau Field on a 10-game losing skid, scoring 20 or fewer points in nine of those games. Also, the Bears are 1-5-1 ATS on the road this year.
Pick: Packers -10
Texans vs. Titans (Sunday, Jan. 5: 1 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Tennessee -1
Toman says: Houston already lost to Tennessee this season but I don’t expect it to happen again. The Texans, the AFC’s No. 4 seed, are apparently playing their starters — at least for some of the game. That’s enough for me to take them against the Titans, who are an NFL-worst 2-14 ATS.
Pick: Texans +1
Jaguars vs. Colts (Sunday, Jan. 5: 1 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Indianapolis -5
Toman says: This is one of the uglier games to close out the regular season. The Jaguars have been among the NFL’s worst teams but they aren’t the ones who allowed the NFC’s lowest-scoring offence to drop 45 on them in Week 17 to get eliminated from the playoffs. Jacksonville has been competitive of late, going 4-1 ATS against this number since its Week 12 bye.
Pick: Jaguars +5
Saints vs. Buccaneers (Sunday, Jan. 5: 1 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Tampa Bay -13.5
Horrobin says: How did New Orleans respond to a 34-0 loss in Green Bay two weeks ago? By taking a 15-point loss at home to the dreadful Raiders. This is a lot of points to lay, but Tampa beat New Orleans by 24 back in October. The Bucs have also covered this number in three of their past four games and are 10-6 ATS.
Pick: Buccaneers -13.5
Giants vs. Eagles (Sunday, Jan. 5: 1 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Philadelphia -3
Perri says: New York snapped a 10-game losing streak last week, ruining its chances at securing the No. 1 overall pick. I don’t expect the G-Men to win again, even with Philadelphia resting plenty of its starters. The Eagles beat the Giants 28-3 earlier this year and their backups should be capable of winning this one handily.
Pick: Eagles -3
Commanders vs. Cowboys (Sunday, Jan. 5: 1 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Washington -5
Horrobin says: Cooper Rush and the Cowboys already have an upset win over the Commanders this year, winning as 11-point road underdogs. In its past six games, Dallas is 4-2 ATS with three upset wins and a one-score loss. Washington has lost or pushed against this number in seven of its past nine games.
Pick: Cowboys +5
Make your NFL Week 18 predictions
NFL 4 p.m. slate
Chiefs vs. Broncos (Sunday, Jan. 5: 4:25 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Denver -10.5
Horrobin says: With the AFC’s No. 1 seed locked up, the Chiefs can pull the chute in Week 18. But with Carson Wentz under centre, I still don’t expect this to turn into a laugher. Last year, Wentz was the plug-in starter for the Rams in Week 18 and led his squad to a win as 5.5-point underdogs. Denver is 2-6 against this number since November.
Pick: Chiefs +10.5
Chargers vs. Raiders (Sunday, Jan. 5: 4:25 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Los Angeles -5
Toman says: The Raiders have won two in a row, surrendered no more than 15 points in three straight, and were a blocked field goal away from topping the reigning Super Bowl champs in Week 13. This isn’t an attempt to portray them as good, but I’ll take them at this number versus a playoff-bound Chargers team that might have nothing to play for once this game kicks off.
Pick: Raiders +5
Dolphins vs. Jets (Sunday, Jan. 5: 4:25 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Miami -0.5
Perri says: Aaron Rodgers admitted he could be playing his last NFL game on Sunday. His tenure with the Jets has been a disaster and I expect it to end with a whimper. Miami’s playoff hopes are still alive, though it looks like Tyler Huntley will be starting at quarterback. The Phins defence has held three straight opponents to 20 or fewer points so I’ll ride with them in this matchup.
Pick: Dolphins -0.5
49ers vs. Cardinals (Sunday, Jan. 5: 4:25 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Arizona -4.5
Perri says: Joshua Dobbs will be starting for San Francisco this week and it seems likely the Niners will be resting plenty more starters. George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Nick Bosa, among others, didn’t practice on Wednesday. The Cardinals have nothing to play for but it appears Kyler Murray will go. That’s enough to get me on Arizona as a home favourite.
Pick: Cardinals -4.5
Seahawks vs. Rams (Sunday, Jan. 5: 4:25 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Seattle -6.5
Toman says: Matthew Stafford won’t start for the Rams and star running back Kyren Williams might not go. Los Angeles has postseason positioning to play for but preserving the health of its key players appears to be of greater importance. Seattle is out but I’ll back the 9-7 Seahawks to take down their divisional rival and make the Rams’ postseason life more difficult.
Pick: Seahawks -6.5
Sunday Night Football NFL ATS pick
Vikings vs. Lions (Sunday, Jan. 5: 8:20 p.m.)
NorthStar Bets line: Detroit -3
Horrobin says: One of these teams will claim the NFC’s top seed, while the other will be a 14-win wild-card team. In a matchup this tight, I’m partial to a team getting a field goal on the spread — especially since Minnesota covered this number in its first matchup against Detroit. The Vikings are on a four-game ATS win streak, while Detroit is just 2-3 ATS in its past five.
Pick: Minnesota +3
Staff Week 17 + season-long records: Closs: 10-6 (127-109-7) | | Toman: 9-7 (122-114-7) | Horrobin: 7-9 (115-121-7) | Psihogios: 7-9 (114-122-7) | Perri: 9-7 (112-124-7)
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