For the second time in less than a month, the Denver Nuggets and Atlanta Hawks meet on the hardwood.
The pregame narrative: Denver is still one of the best home teams in the NBA, and I expect the Nuggets to kick off the new year with a win. Even so, I like Trae Young to go over his point total as he rides a scoring surge.
Check out my Hawks vs. Nuggets same-game parlay predictions for Jan. 1.
Hawks vs. Nuggets predictions
Go to full NBA betting markets
Parlay: Nuggets moneyline + Over 241.5 points + Young over 21.5 points (+280)
Nuggets moneyline (-215): On Dec. 8, Denver bounced Atlanta on the road, 141-111.
Given how thoroughly dominant the Nuggets were in that game, I think a simple win on home court should be perfectly attainable.
Denver is 46-16 at home since the start of last season. All five of the Nuggets’ home losses this year came against strong teams, who collectively have a .720 win percentage this year.
Atlanta (18-15) is solid, but not in the tier of teams that has pushed Denver at Ball Arena.
The Nuggets have the sixth-best net rating in their past 10 games (+7.9). In the same span, the Hawks’ net rating is +0.9.
SGP legs
Over 241.5 points (-200): Regardless of who wins, one thing I expect from tonight is a lot of points.
The Nuggets have the highest overs percentage in the NBA (21-10, 67.7%), per Team Rankings. Right behind them are the Hawks at 22-11 (66.7%).
As mentioned above, Denver and Atlanta combined for 252 total points when they matched up in December. So although this is a hefty total — higher than any standard line across the league tonight — it’s one I know these teams can clear.
Denver has hit a 250-point total in seven of its past 10 games.
Young over 21.5 points (-143): Young only scored 15 points against Denver last month, but that’s an anomaly compared to his other recent output.
- 25.2 PPG in his past nine games
- 22+ points in 7/9 games since Dec. 6
Prior to this nine-game heater, Young had averaged 20.7 PPG over 22 games. Not bad relative to this line, but I’m also heartened by the recent uptick.
Young’s 3-point production has been key to his improved scoring, as he’s shooting 40.5% from deep over his past nine games.
Denver should be a good matchup for him to continue firing. The Nuggets allow the seventh-most made 3s in the NBA.
Picks made at 1:10 p.m. ET 01/01/2025
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.