Three NFL teams with plus-money odds to win have my attention in Week 18.
The pregame narrative: The Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions square off for first in the NFC and I’m betting on the former to upset the latter. Elsewhere, I like the Pittsburgh Steelers to end the Cincinnati Bengals’ run and the Jacksonville Jaguars to win a meaningless game against the Indianapolis Colts.
Check out these NFL Week 18 upset picks.
NFL Week 18 upset picks
Best Bet: Vikings moneyline (+130)
There are several reasons to like Minnesota on Sunday Night Football.
The first is the team’s performance this year. The Vikings are a formidable, well-rounded outfit. They boast the eighth-ranked scoring offence (26.4) and fourth-placed scoring defence (18.8).
The second is Minnesota’s slight rest advantage.
The Lions played on Monday Night Football, giving them one fewer day to prepare for their biggest game of the season. The Vikings are a strong 3-1 straight up with a rest advantage this season.
Thirdly, Detroit’s defensive injuries remain a real problem. The Lions have ceded the fourth-most points per game (33.0) over the last three weeks.
Containing playmakers like Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson and Aaron Jones is difficult for any defence. Detroit doesn’t have the personnel to do it.
The Lions have relied heavily on turnovers. They’re tied for eighth in the category with 24. The Vikings have been even better at forcing mistakes, making it difficult to see where Detroit has a distinctive edge in this matchup.
Key stat: Minnesota is tied for the NFL lead in turnovers (31).
Week 18 upset predictions
Steelers moneyline (+105): Pittsburgh’s chances of winning the AFC North hinge on how the Baltimore Ravens perform against the Cleveland Browns before it even takes the field.
Regardless of Baltimore’s outcome, I expect Mike Tomlin’s crew to play its starters and give an honest effort against Cincinnati.
Firstly, this Steelers team hasn’t been able to build any momentum.
It’s lost three consecutive games and hasn’t earned the right to rest before the postseason. An old-school coach like Tomlin will likely see things the same way.
Secondly, Pittsburgh has a distinct rest advantage in this contest. It’s been off since Christmas Day, giving it a three-day rest edge over Cincinnati who played on Saturday.
Thirdly, the Steelers have already earned a win over the Bengals this season. They beat Cincy, 44-38, in Week 13.
Pittsburgh’s three-game losing streak includes losses to the Ravens, Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs. The Bengals are not in the same class as those teams and the Steelers should break their streak on Saturday.
Fade Cincinnati coming off an emotional victory in overtime against the Denver Broncos.
Jaguars moneyline (+195): The Colts just allowed 45 points to the New York Giants.
Any team that allows 30 points — let alone 45 — to New York doesn’t deserve to be a -220 moneyline favourite.
Jacksonville has been a competitive bunch even with starting quarterback Trevor Lawrence sidelined. Each of the Jags’ last five games and eight of their last nine have been one-score contests.
Indianapolis hasn’t done anything to make me believe it should be a commanding favourite against anybody.
The Colts’ three wins since November have come against the New York Jets, New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans.
The Jaguars have two wins in the same span (both against the Titans). They also have a win over the Colts this season and have won five of the last six meetings between these two teams.
Picks made at 3:44 p.m. ET on 12/31/2024.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.