The Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder close out 2024 with a monster matchup.
The pregame narrative: The T-Wolves and Thunder are two elite teams led by bright young stars. I’m backing Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle to have big games for Minnesota on the road
Check out my Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks for Dec. 31.
Timberwolves vs. Thunder prop picks
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Best Bet: Edwards over 22.5 points (-137)
Let’s get the ugly out of the way: Edwards is having a bad month.
The superstar guard has seen a massive dip in scoring:
- October-November (19 games): 27.7 PPG, 21.2 FGA, 45.3 FG%
- December (12 games): 20.5 PPG, 18.5 FGA, 42.3 FG%
Edwards is taking fewer, less accurate shots and his points totals have corrected as a result. But I think this line is too low even against an elite defensive team like OKC.
Even in a bad month, he’s 6-6 against this line. And it’s not like 18.5 field goal attempts per game is bad from a volume standpoint.
The Thunder allow the seventh-fewest points per game to shooting guards, according to Fantasy Pros. They also have the second-best home defensive rating in basketball.
But somehow, Edwards has cooked in this building.
He’s scored 24-plus points in four of his last five games here, including both games last season.
Key stat: Edwards is averaging 26.5 PPG on the road this season, clearing this mark in five of his last six road games.
Quick pick
Randle over 11.5 rebounds and assists (-106): In an ideal world, Randle will be dishing it and Edwards will be scoring.
The first-year Timberwolf has been a solid facilitator, averaging 4.4 assists per game. Over the last five games, he’s averaging 6.6 assists and has cleared this line four times.
But it’s on the glass that I expect Randle to really flourish.
The Thunder have been a much better rebounding team with Isaiah Hartenstein in the mix but still aren’t great. They are 19th in rebounding rate since he joined on Nov. 20 and were dead last beforehand.
This is a plus matchup for Randle as OKC allows the third-most rebounds per game to power forwards.
The over on his 6.5 rebound total carries -141 juice so I’ll instead pivot to this rebound and assist line.
Picks made at 1:02 p.m. ET 12/31/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.