The College Football Playoff quarterfinals begin on New Year’s Eve with Penn State meeting Boise State and will ring in 2025 with three games on New Year’s Day.
The pregame narrative: Four prop picks — one from each game — make my list. Drew Allar and Quinn Ewers are poised to dominate in plus matchups. I’m also taking the over on props for Quinshon Judkins and Trevor Etienne to round out my picks.
Check out the best College Football Playoff quarterfinals prop picks for Dec. 31- Jan. 1.
College Football Playoff prop picks
Editor’s note: Notre Dame vs. Georgia, originally scheduled for Jan. 1, was postponed to Jan. 2
Best Bet: Allar over 224.5 passing yards (-118)
Allar has been using his arm talent and mobility to guide Penn State to the quarterfinals. The former should carry him and his team to a strong performance on Tuesday.
Big passing yard outputs have been common for Allar in recent games. He’s topped this line in three of his last five games while putting a real emphasis on taking care of the football.
Allar has avoided an interception in four of his last five contests.
His smart decision-making is also leading to strong completion percentages. The Penn State passer has completed 65-plus percent of his passes in three of his last five contests.
Bettors should expect a strong performance against a Boise State defence that hasn’t shown it can stop the pass. The Broncos rank an underwhelming 83rd in the nation in defensive EPA per pass (.02), per gameonpaper.com.
The Nittany Lions have a clear advantage with their passing attack. Betting on a strong outing from Allar seems like the right play.
Key stat: Boise State is allowing 246.9 passing yards per game.
Quick picks
Ewers over 249.5 passing yards (-117): Texas’ offensive identity has shifted from a well-balanced attack to one that relies heavily on the pass.
NFL talents like Bijan Robinson, Roschon Johnson and Jonathon Brooks are gone. The group’s success falls on Ewers’ shoulders and he’s been up for the task.
The Southlake, Texas native didn’t have to do much in the team’s win over Clemson.
He’ll be tasked with doing more if the Longhorns want to topple an Arizona State squad that can beat you through the air and on the ground on offence.
Ewers is averaging 238.9 passing yards per contest but will likely have an above-average day against the Sun Devils. Arizona State is an uninspiring 77th in defensive EPA per pass (.02).
Judkins over 49.5 rushing yards (+100): Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson form the best running back duo in the nation.
The latter has proven to be the more efficient back, but the former continues to see a hearty dosage of carries in an explosive Ohio State offence.
Judkins struggled against the Oregon Ducks in the first meeting between these teams (11 carries, 23 yards), but I like his chances of putting a strong performance together on Wednesday.
Oregon ranks 110th in defensive EPA per rush (0.10). The issue hasn’t hurt the Ducks all that much, however, as they’re typically playing with the lead.
If the Buckeyes can jump out to an early lead, Judkins should clear this total without trouble.
Etienne over 84.5 rushing yards (-113): Etienne has a mouthwatering matchup on deck against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
No team remaining in the College Football Playoff is surrendering more rushing yards per game (133.0) than Notre Dame. Even better than that, the Fighting Irish are a true run-funnel defence.
They own the best defensive EPA per play against the pass (-0.42) but rank 46th in defensive EPA per play against the run (-0.02).
Etienne rumbled for 94 yards in his most recent outing against Texas, and I expect another strong game against Notre Dame.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.