The College Football Playoff quarterfinals begin on New Year’s Eve in a matchup between No. 6 Penn State and No. 3 Boise State.
The pregame narrative: Penn State had its way with SMU in the first round of the playoff, and I think the Nittany Lions’ defence will show up again in the quarterfinals. My +275 SGP includes a teased-up under, an Ashton Jeanty fade and a prop bet tailing Tyler Warren.
Check out my top Penn State vs. Boise State predictions for this quarterfinal CFP matchup on Dec. 31.
Penn State vs. Boise State predictions
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Parlay: Under 57.5 points + Jeanty under 139.5 rushing yards + Warren 60+ receiving yards (+275)
Under 57.5 points (-200): This is a lot of points, especially with one of college football’s top defences on the field.
- Penn State ranks inside the top five in both yards allowed (280.1/game) and points allowed (15.7/game).
- The Nittany Lions went under this total in 10 of 14 games.
In fairness, Boise State scored a boatload of points this year (39.1 PPG, third in FBS). But the Broncos played in the defensively inept Mountain West Conference.
Boise had the 84th-ranked strength of schedule out of 134 teams, per ESPN. That’s easily the weakest of the CFP field.
Also, the Broncos went under this total in six of their past eight games.
Other parlay picks
Jeanty under 139.5 rushing yards (-157): I’ve faded Jeanty before and it blew up in my face. If he fools me twice, the shame is all mine.
Jeanty put up absurd numbers this season, stampeding for 192.1 rush yards per game en route to a runner-up finish in the Heisman Trophy vote.
With that in mind, how could I possibly fade him at this number?
Well, Penn State’s defence is a hell of a lot different than what he’s accustomed to seeing.
- PSU ranks 6th in defensive EPA per rush, according to gameonpaper.com.
- Only one of Boise’s opponents ranked inside the top 80 for defensive EPA per rush (UNLV, 38th), and none ranked inside the top 30.
- PSU has only allowed one 100-yard rusher this season (USC’s Jo’quavious Marks, 111 yards).
The Broncos are double-digit underdogs, which means a negative game script is likely. Jeanty should be very heavily involved no matter what, but I like the Nittany Lions’ chances of selling out and keeping him below his usual yardage.
Warren 60+ receiving yards (-235): At 6-foot-6 and 261 pounds, Warren presents a size mismatch from the tight end position that I don’t think Boise will be able to handle.
Warren is coming off a down week in a blowout win (four catches, 33 yards), but the Nittany Lions should be looking his way on Tuesday night.
Boise State has allowed 256.6 passing yards per game this season. That’s 113th in the country.
Prior to his quiet showing in the CFP first round, Warren cashed this bet in five straight games.
The winner of the Mackey Award — given to college football’s top tight end — has averaged 7.7 catches and 89.6 yards over his past seven games.
Picks made at 3:05 p.m. on 12/29/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.