NFL Sunday closes out with an exciting game between the Atlanta Falcons and Washington Commanders.
The pregame narrative: These teams have taken part in high-scoring games this season, and I like the over on a teased-down total for tonight. I’m also backing Michael Penix Jr. and Zach Ertz in this +320 wager.
Check out my Falcons vs. Commanders same-game parlay predictions for Sunday Night Football.
Falcons vs. Commanders same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Over 42.5 points + Penix over 18.5 completions + Ertz over 29.5 receiving yards (+320)
Over 42.5 points (-190): In Penix’s first career start, the Falcons scored 34 points. The rookie quarterback’s numbers didn’t jump off the page but he put the offence in better positions than a worn down Kirk Cousins could.
Atlanta averaged 13.8 points across the previous four weeks with Cousins as its starter.
On the other side, Washington is a high-scoring team that can give up points on defence.
The Commanders score 28.8 points per game (fourth-most in the NFL) while allowing 23.2 points, which is more than the league average.
Buying a few points gives this leg a bit more security. Washington has gone over this total in 12 of 15 games.
Other parlay picks
Penix over 18.5 completions (-117): With a negative game script, Penix still managed to complete 18 of 27 passes for 202 yards last week.
Bijan Robinson was the main attraction, securing 94 yards and two touchdowns. Atlanta’s defence managed to return two interceptions for scores, as well.
Robinson can still have a big night but I expect the Falcons to pass more as they try to keep pace with a dynamic Commanders offence.
It’s a small sample size, but Penix has completed 65.6% of his passes this season (21-of-32).
Ertz over 29.5 receiving yards (-143): The Commanders’ veteran tight end ranks second on the team in receiving yards (538) and has often been a safety net for Jayden Daniels.
Ertz is 10-5 against this line but is coming off two consecutive weeks where he fell short.
The good news is the Falcons have a below-average pass defence that allows 223.4 passing yards per game.
It’s also worth noting that Ertz is approaching contract incentives for 60 receptions (five away) and 600 yards (62 away).
Picks made at 1:40 p.m. on 12/29/24.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.