A pair of talented point guards headline Saturday’s NBA prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing at an MVP-calibre pace, and I believe he can stay hot on the road tonight. Elsewhere, look for De’Aaron Fox to hit a reasonable scoring target and fade Jerami Grant amid a cold streak.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 28.
NBA prop bets
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Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander over 35.5 points/rebounds (-124)
Gilgeous-Alexander is one of two players leading the charge in the MVP conversation, and he’s certainly playing up to that billing right now.
The superstar point guard has put up blistering numbers over his past 13 games, including:
- 34.2 points/game
- 6.3 rebounds/game
- 53.4 FG%
With an average of 40.5 PR in that span, Gilgeous-Alexander has cleared this line consistently. On Saturday, I don’t expect much resistance from the Charlotte Hornets.
Charlotte’s issues stem more from the offensive side than on defence, but the team is still subpar in terms of defensive rating (20th).
Also, the Hornets allow the seventh-most rebounds per game to opposing point guards (6.7), per Betting Pros.
There are better matchups out there for a guy like SGA, but this one’s good enough that I expect he’ll continue wreaking havoc.
Key stat: Gilgeous-Alexander has gone over 35.5 points/rebounds in nine of his past 13 games.
Quick picks
Grant under 14.5 points (-109): Tonight marks the third time this month that the Portland Trail Blazers will face the Dallas Mavericks. And I’m expecting another dud from Grant.
On Dec. 1, Grant finished with 14 points on 4-of-10 shooting against Dallas. He followed that up with just three points on 1-of-7 shooting on Dec. 23.
Grant is averaging 15.0 PPG on the season, but his recent production has been a step below that.
In 16 games since Nov. 13, Grant has averaged 12.6 PPG and hit this under 12 times.
Fox over 24.5 points (-137): The Sacramento Kings are having a weird one, after a questionable firing of head coach Mike Brown, but that shouldn’t affect Fox’s steady production as a scorer.
- Fox is on his way to averaging 25-plus points for the fourth time in five seasons.
- He’s cashed this bet in four of his past five games.
Furthermore, the Kings’ point guard is a reliable bucket-getter against the Los Angeles Lakers, who he’ll see tonight.
Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Fox has averaged 30.4 PPG against the Lakers in 11 matchups. He has 25-plus points in all three prior meetings this year.
Picks made at 12:04 p.m. ET on 12/28/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.