A trio of running backs headline these NFL Week 17 prop bets.
The pregame narrative: I’m backing Bijan Robinson and Bucky Irving to produce in plus matchups and am fading Rico Dowdle against a tough Philadelphia Eagles defence.
Check out the best NFL Week 17 prop bets for the upcoming games.
NFL Week 17 prop bets
Go to full NFL Week 17 betting markets.
Best bet: Robinson over 18.5 receiving yards (-117)
I backed Robinson to clear his 21.5 receiving total last week and it didn’t come close.
Atlanta’s tailback caught just two passes for nine yards but was still heavily involved, turning 22 carries into 94 rushing yards and two scores.
I’ll go back to the well on Robinson as a pass catcher despite him falling short of this line in three straight.
The second-year RB is still 10-5 against this line on the season while averaging 28.0 receiving yards per game.
He’s elusive enough to clear this mark on just one catch and I expect him to be targeted often by Michael Penix Jr. against the Washington Commanders.
Washington’s defence has the fourth-highest blitz rate (31.3%) and ninth-highest pressure rate (23.6%) in the NFL.
That should force the rookie QB to turn to Robinson as a check-down option.
Key stat: Robison has a 13.2% target share which ranks in the 94th percentile of all RBs, according to Rotowire.
Quick picks
Dowdle under 58.5 rushing yards (-113): On the surface level, the over on Dowdle’s rushing total might seem like a smash play.
CeeDee Lamb’s season is over and Dallas’ running back has topped 100 rushing yards in three of his last four games.
But no Lamb means the Cowboys will struggle to move the chains, which should in turn put them down early and force a more pass-heavy offence.
Dowdle is coming off an awful 13-carry, 23-yard performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and now gets one of the best rush defences in the NFL.
Philadelphia allows the ninth-fewest rushing yards per game (102.9) and the eighth-fewest yards per rush (4.3). The Eagles held Dowdle to 53 yards when they met earlier this season.
Irving over 80.5 rushing yards (-114): Irving went berserk the last time he played the Carolina Panthers.
- 25 carries, 152 rushing yards, 1 TD
Tampa Bay’s lead back got nicked toward the end of that game and was forced to exit early the following week against the Las Vegas Raiders.
But he’s looked solid in two starts since, logging 117 yards against the defensively stout Los Angeles Chargers before putting up 68 yards against the Dallas Cowboys.
The Buccaneers — who are 8-point home favourites — should be up early on Carolina, which will lead to a favourable game script for Irving.
And even if this one is closer than the spread indicates, the RB should have a day.
Carolina allows the most rushing yards per game (175.2) and the most yards per carry (5.0).
Picks made at 1:55 p.m. ET on 12/27/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.