The Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers open up the Christmas Day NFL doubleheader.
The pregame narrative: Kansas City hasn’t been very good ATS this season so I’m taking the Steelers to cover a teased-up spread at home. I’m adding prop picks on Patrick Mahomes and Kareem Hunt to craft a +275 ticket.
Check out my Chiefs vs. Steelers same-game parlay predictions for Christmas Day.
Chiefs vs. Steelers same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Mahomes over 224.5 passing yards + Hunt over 7.5 receiving yards + Steelers +6.5 (+275)
Mahomes over 224.5 passing yards (-278): Despite having a down season, this is an achievable number for Mahomes against the Steelers’ defence.
Pittsburgh allows the 13th-most passing yards (220.7) to quarterbacks so this is an above-average matchup for the reigning Super Bowl MVP.
And Mahomes averages 240.5 passing yards per game.
The other good news is that the Chiefs’ offence should be at the best we’ve seen since the early stages of the season.
Isiah Pacecho is another week removed from the injured list and newcomer De’Andre Hopkins has been a welcomed addition around the end zone.
As you’ll read later, I’m predicting a tightly contested game which would be favourable for this leg of the bet.
Other parlay picks
Hunt over 7.5 receiving yards (-110): Even with Pacheco back in the mix, Hunt has earned a role in this offence.
The tailback has at least one reception in each of the past five games, clearing this total three times.
This total is so low that Hunt could easily clear it with one catch out of the backfield. Pittsburgh’s defence can be effective at sending pressure, too. It blitzes the QB 26.1% of the time.
With T.J. Watt hot on his tail, Mahomes should be forced to get the ball out quickly at times and Hunt has become one of his favourite check-down options.
Steelers +6.5 (-200): Backing the Steelers on an alternate spread gives this parlay some negative correlation which drives the price up.
But I do think this is the right side.
Kansas City is 7-8 ATS this season despite being an almost perfect 14-1. On the other side, Pittsburgh is 10-5, which is the second-best ATS record of any team.
The Steelers rely on their strong defensive play and QB Russell Wilson has been a steady addition to the offence.
Pittsburgh lost consecutive games by more than a touchdown but before that, it hadn’t happened all season.
Those two defeats were on the road against the Philadephia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens. Those sides have explosive offences while the Chiefs rely more on their defence for success.
The Steelers are at home on Christmas Day where they haven’t lost by seven-plus points all season long.
With that being said, I’m expecting a gritty matchup between these defensively sound sides.
Picks made at 8:10 a.m. on 12/24/24.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.