The Toronto Raptors host the Houston Rockets at Scotiabank Arena on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto has been a great ATS team and I like it to cover as a teased-up home underdog. Fade Scottie Barnes and back Jabari Smith Jr. to round out this +475 ticket.
Check out my Rockets vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 22.
Rockets vs. Raptors predictions
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Parlay: Raptors +14.5 + Barnes under 34.5 PRA + Smith over 1.5 threes (+475)
Raptors +14.5 (-345): Toronto has mastered the competitive loss — or as some like to call it: “The dignified tank.”
At 7-21, the Raptors sit near the basement of the NBA standings. Their 18-9-1 ATS record, however, ranks third in the league.
That includes a stellar 10-3-1 ATS mark as a home underdog.
I’ve teased this spread up 6.5 points which should be more than enough leeway against a Rockets team which has been mediocre on the road.
Houston is 7-6 straight up away from Toyota Center and has only covered this number in one of those games.
SGP legs
Barnes under 34.5 PRA (-109): Fading Barnes while backing Toronto ATS skyrockets this play’s payout thanks to some negative correlation.
And the good news is the Raptors can still cover a huge number without Barnes having a big night.
This is a nightmare matchup for Toronto’s small forward, who is playing in his second game since returning from an injury.
- Houston ranks first in rebounding rate (42.6%).
- The Rockets allow the 10th-fewest points (21.8) and third-fewest assists (3.45) to small forwards per game, according to Fantasy Pros.
Barnes is averaging career highs in points (20.3) and assists (7.3) but he’s still fallen under this mark in three of his last four and seven of 15 on the season.
Smith over 1.5 threes (-136): I like this as a straight wager, even with the juice involved.
Smith isn’t a volume shooter from deep but he’s been accurate and has a solid matchup.
The third-year power forward has cleared this line in nine of his last 10 starts — hitting three-plus 3s five times — and is shooting 36.4% from deep.
Toronto allows the 10th-most 3s per game to opposing power forwards and Smith hit multiple 3s in both games against the Raptors last season.
Picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET 12/22/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.