The Dallas Cowboys are back in primetime on Sunday Night Football, hosting the NFC South-leading Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The pregame narrative: Tampa Bay’s run-and-gun style of play should lead to plenty of points. I’m betting the over on a teased-down total in this contest. Additionally, I like Dallas stars CeeDee Lamb and Rico Dowdle to go over in a pair of prop markets.
Check out my Buccaneers vs. Cowboys same-game parlay predictions for Sunday Night Football’s Week 16 matchup.
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Over 43.5 points + Lamb over 72.5 receiving yards + Dowdle over 86.5 rushing and receiving yards (+375)
Over 43.5 points (-220): Buccaneers games tend to have a boatload of points.
Tampa Bay’s 9-5 over record is among the best in the NFL. It’s beating its game total by 6.6 points on average, the third-highest margin of any team in the league.
It doesn’t take a deep dive into the advanced numbers to figure out why, either.
Baker Mayfield is leading one of the best offences in the league. The Bucs are tied for fifth in yards per play (6.1) and sit fourth in points per game (28.8).
They’re often having to score out of necessity. Most nights, their defence isn’t holding up its end of the bargain.
- 19th in points allowed per game (23.3)
- T-24th in yards per play allowed (5.6)
The over on this total has cashed in eight of Tampa Bay’s last 11 games and each of Dallas’ last five.
Other parlay picks
Lamb over 72.5 receiving yards (-115): Cooper Rush knows where to go with the football.
The backup quarterback has been leaning on Lamb since taking over as starter. Here are the superstar receivers’ numbers since Week 10:
- 60 targets
- 41 receptions
- 71.5 receiving yards per game
Rush is locking in on his top target, putting Lamb in a prime position to take advantage of a weak Buccaneers secondary.
The Bucs allow the 10th-most receiving yards per game (154.0) to the position. They’re also surrendering the third-most passing yards per game (247.7) overall.
Lamb has topped this total in back-to-back games. Expect that streak to continue.
Dowdle over 86.5 rushing and receiving yards (-113): Thirdly, I expect a big performance from Dowdle.
The running back has taken over as the team’s bell cow, logging 60-plus percent of the snaps in each of his last four games and 70-plus percent in each of his last three outings.
As a result, Dowdle has been stuffing the stat sheet during this four-game stretch:
- 84 carries
- 478 rushing yards
- Seven receptions
- 33 receiving yards
His receiving totals have been underwhelming, but he should be able to have a strong day against a Bucs defence that can’t contain opposing backs in the passing game.
Tampa Bay is surrendering the third-most receiving yards per game to opposing running backs (42.8).
Dallas enters this contest as a slight underdog, meaning it should be in neutral or pass-friendly situations for most of this game. That should keep Dowdle involved and allow him to usurp this mark.
Picks made at 9:31 a.m. on 12/22/24.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.