The Clemson Tigers’ unlikely run to the college football playoff meets a stiff test against the Texas Longhorns.
The pregame narrative: Texas looks the part of a true contender, but I can’t say the same about Clemson. I expect the Longhorns to cover the spread thanks to a strong defensive showing. That also has me backing the under on the game total and Cade Klubnik’s passing yards prop.
Check out my top Clemson vs. Texas predictions for this first-round CFP matchup on Dec. 21.
Clemson vs. Texas predictions
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Parlay: Texas -13 + Klubnik under 215.5 passing yards + Under 50.5 points (+400)
Texas -13 (-112): Clemson is deserving of a spot in the expanded College Football Playoff, but that doesn’t mean it matches up well against Texas.
I struggle to see how the Tigers will score points on Saturday. They had a very difficult time producing against solid defensive teams this season.
Here’s a look at some notable results:
- 3 points vs. Georgia (34-3 loss)
- 21 points vs. Louisville (33-21 loss)
- 14 points vs. South Carolina (17-14 loss)
Texas figures to be its toughest test yet. The Longhorns rank second in expected points added (EPA) per pass (-0.36), according to gameonpaper.com, and are ceding the second-fewest yards per game (249.8).
Texas’ only losses were to Georgia, and it covered or pushed on this spread in eight of 13 games overall.
Other parlay picks
Klubnik under 215.5 passing yards (-120): This could be a really ugly outing for Klubnik.
The Clemson quarterback is enjoying modest success this season, but he struggled mightily against the aforementioned defences.
Here’s how Klubnik performed in those three games:
- 142 passing yards, zero TDs vs. Georgia
- 228 passing yards, one TD vs. Louisville
- 280 passing yards, zero TDs vs. South Carolina
The Longhorns ceded the fewest passing yards per game (143.1) to opposing passers, and I don’t expect Klubnik to have an above-average day against this defence.
Under 50.5 points (-110): Lastly, I’m taking the under on the game total.
I expect this contest to look similar to Clemson’s lopsided loss to Georgia in the season opener.
Texas’ defence is capable of stymying even the toughest of offences. Georgia needed overtime to score 22 on the unit last week.
The under on this total has cashed in each of the Longhorns’ last four outings.
Picks made at 12:00 p.m. on 12/21/24.
Stevie’s an avid NFL, NHL, and tennis bettor who has no problem talking himself into the underdog. His previous stops include Yahoo! Sports Canada and Toronto Metropolitan University, where he received a degree in Sport Media.