Two wide receivers and one quarterback make up this week’s NFL TD picks.
The pregame narrative: Jalen Hurts is on a roll and has a fair price to find pay dirt against the Washington Commanders. Elsewhere, Tee Higgins and Drake London have my attention.
Check out the best NFL Week 16 TD picks for Sunday’s football games.
NFL Week 16 TD picks
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Best bet: Hurts anytime TD (-134)
Hurts has been playing MVP-calibre ball during Philadelphia’s 10-game winning streak.
- 14 passing TDs, one interception
- 115.5 passer rating
- 12 rushing TDs
He’s cashed this bet in eight of those games, which isn’t surprising considering how often the quarterback calls his own number.
Hurts has 24 rushing attempts from within the 10-yard line in the last 10 games. That’s more than anyone in the NFL not named Josh Jacobs.
For some added context, Saquon Barkley — his teammate and the best RB in the league — has just 16 carries within the 10-yard line in that span.
The Commanders have exceeded all expectations this season but their middle-of-the-pack defence doesn’t scare me.
Washington ranks 25th in defensive EPA per rush and 29th in yards per attempt (4.8).
Key stat: Hurts has six rushing TDs in eight career games against Washington.
Quick picks
Higgins anytime TD (+110): I backed Higgins to score last week and he came through with this 38-yard grab against the Tennessee Titans:
I’ll go back to the well when the Cincinnati Bengals host an awful Cleveland Browns team.
Higgins has scored in four of his last five games and is wreaking havoc as teams send extra bodies to try to stop Ja’Marr Chase.
The dynamic WR2 ranks ninth in red zone targets (19) despite missing five games with an injury.
His 6-foot-4 frame makes him a go-to option in that area of the field but he can also rip off a long score as seen above.
London anytime TD (+100): London will have a new quarterback under centre with Kirk Cousins benched in favour of Michael Penix Jr.
If you’re put off by that change, you shouldn’t be.
Cousins was in disastrous form with just one touchdown pass — caught by London — and nine interceptions in his last five games.
The wheels fell off the veteran quickly and Penix should be able to breathe new life into the Atlanta Falcons offence when they host the New York Giants.
The G-Men are on a nine-game losing streak and just surrendered five passing touchdowns to Lamar Jackson.
London has the fourth-most red zone targets in the NFL (20). He’s a good candidate to be the recipient of Penix’s first TD pass.
Picks made at 1:29 p.m. ET on 12/20/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.