The No. 11 SMU Mustangs could be in for a rude awakening at Happy Valley against the No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions.
The pregame narrative: A ferocious Penn State defence and some inclement weather have me fading SMU’s point total in this +510 SGP. I also have prop bets on Tyler Warren and Brashard Smith.
Check out my top SMU vs. Penn State predictions for this first-round CFP matchup on Dec. 21.
SMU vs. Penn State predictions
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Parlay: SMU under 22.5 points + Warren anytime TD + Smith over 64.5 rushing yards (+510)
SMU under 22.5 points (-118): I don’t like to play the weather card too often, but SMU will be completely out of its element in central Pennsylvania.
Players are expected to be greeted by wind gusts, -10 C temperatures, and a light dusting of snow at Penn State on Saturday. The Dallas-based Mustangs haven’t played in a sub-zero-Celsius game all year.
SMU averages almost double this point total (38.5 PPG) and has cleared this mark in 12 of 13 games. But in a wintery environment, I think the Mustangs will go cold.
And keep in mind that Penn State has an excellent defence (despite how Oregon made it look in the Big 10 championship game).
The Nittany Lions have held their opponents to:
- 16.4 PPG (eighth in the NCAA)
- Under 22.5 points in 9/13 games
At home, Penn State has allowed just 11.1 PPG and cashed this bet in six of seven matchups.
Other parlay picks
Warren anytime TD (-152): Fresh off winning the Mackey Award as college football’s top tight end, Warren should remain at the centre of Penn State’s offensive plans on Saturday.
The fifth-year star has been particularly productive over his past five matchups:
- 8+ targets every game
- 6+ catches every game
- 112.0 scrimmage yards/game
- 5 TDs
Warren is a receiver first, but don’t count out his impact in the run game. He’s had multiple rush attempts in seven straight games and has four rushing TDs this season.
Penn State recently lost its backup quarterback, Beau Pribula, to the transfer portal. Pribula was primarily used in run packages this year, so his absence could simply mean more touches for Warren.
Smith over 64.5 rushing yards (-215): SMU might be fighting a negative game script all day, but its best chance to win might be to shrink the number of possessions.
And the best way to do that would be to lean on Smith in the run game.
In the ACC championship game, Smith rushed 24 times for 113 yards. His floor, in terms of touches, is really high.
- 16+ carries in six straight games
- 16.7 carries/game this season
- 65+ rush yards in 11/13 games
Based on my fade of SMU’s point total, I don’t expect much from the Mustangs’ offence. But keeping the ball in Smith’s hands has been a solid strategy all year.
Picks made at 1:15 p.m. on 12/19/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.