A pair of playoff-calibre AFC West squads meet on Thursday Night Football in a matchup between the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers.
The pregame narrative: Justin Herbert is in a rut, and I don’t think he’ll snap out of it against Denver’s daunting pass defence. As for the Broncos’ offence, I like Marvin Mims to clear a modest receiving yards line after some encouraging usage.
Check out my Broncos vs. Chargers prop picks for Thursday Night Football on Dec. 19.
Broncos vs. Chargers prop picks
Go to full NFL betting markets
Best Bet: Mims over 26.5 receiving yards (-117)
Aside from Courtland Sutton, the Broncos’ receiving corps is a merry-go-round of guys who all show glimpses of promise without any sustained success.
But there’s something about Mims that has my attention.
Over his past five games, Mims has commanded a 35.2% target share on his routes. He’s only averaged 3.8 targets per game in that span, mind you, but the ball tends to find him when he’s on the field.
Is that a product of Mims running strong routes and getting open? Or are the Broncos scheming several plays with him in mind?
Without getting to ask head coach Sean Payton, I can’t know for sure. Regardless, Mims’ target share when he’s on the field is a nice indicator that he’s carving out a role for himself.
- Prior to Week 10, Mims never saw more than three targets in a game.
- Since Week 10, he’s had 4+ targets in 4/5 games.
If the Broncos are trying to scheme up more plays for Mims, that would make sense to me. As a rookie last season, he was a Pro Bowl kick returner and proved he can make plays in space.
Key stat: Mims has averaged 46.2 yards/game in his past five, cashing this bet three times.
Quick pick
Herbert under 228.5 passing yards (-115): Nursing an ankle injury and coming off four tough weeks, Herbert is walking — or possibly limping — into a brutal matchup against the Broncos.
Herbert has gone under this yardage total in every matchup from Week 12-15:
- 218 yards, 0 TDs (vs. Ravens)
- 147 yards, 0 TDs (at Falcons)
- 213 yards, 1 TD (at Chiefs)
- 195 yards, 2 TDs (vs. Buccaneers)
Denver ranks No. 1 in defensive EPA per dropback, per rbsdm.com, and No. 3 in net yards per attempt (5.4). The Broncos aren’t going to make things easy on Herbert.
It’s worth noting that Herbert threw for 237 yards against Denver in Week 6, but that was on 34 pass attempts — well above his average of 28.5 attempts this season.
After practicing in a limited fashion on Monday and Tuesday, I’m not expecting Herbert to sit on Thursday night. His mobility could be affected, though, adding another reason to fade him.
Picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET 12/18/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.