This year’s College Football Playoff will be bigger (and better) than ever.
With home playoff games, an expanded field and a bracket bursting with upset potential, there are lots of new elements that should make the 2024-25 CFP a great experience for bettors and fans.
Before the first-round games kick off on Dec. 20, check out our College Football Playoff betting guide.
College Football Playoff betting guide: 4 key storylines
Go to full NCAAF betting markets.
Indiana vs. Notre Dame: Strength vs. strength
- According to gameonpaper.com, Indiana’s offence ranks in No. 1 EPA per pass. But Notre Dame’s defence is No. 1 in the same category.
- On the flip side, Notre Dame’s best offensive attribute is its run game (No. 9 in EPA per rush), but that’s also where Indiana’s defence excels (No. 1 in EPA/rush).
- Which side is willing to commit to its strengths? Keep in mind that both teams were critiqued for fairly weak schedules. The Hoosiers are 11th among CFP teams in strength of schedule (67th), per ESPN, and Notre Dame (60th) wasn’t far ahead. It’s possible that one side will be exposed as a fraud in this game.
SMU should relish the underdog status
- Penn State went blow-for-blow with Oregon in the Big Ten championship game, flexing a lot more offensive muscle than it showed against Ohio State back in early November. So it makes sense for the Nittany Lions to be favoured over the ACC runner-up Mustangs, but SMU could be dangerous in this spot.
- SMU went 8-5 ATS this season, including a 2-0 ATS record as an underdog. In fact, the Mustangs won both games as underdogs straight up (vs. TCU, at Louisville).
- Penn State is 6-5 ATS this season and just 3-4 ATS at home.
Clemson vs. Texas could be a slog
- Unders are 8-4 in Clemson games this year and 8-4-1 in Texas games. The Longhorns have cashed the under in four straight. Against a 51.5-point total, unders are 8-1 in Texas’ past nine.
- Texas, in particular, appears to have the tools to squash the Clemson offence. Texas ranks No. 2 in the nation in opponent scoring (12.5 PPG), opponent yards (249.8 YPG) and third/fourth down success rate (33.0%).
- Clemson’s greatest concern is probably its run defence, which has allowed 200-plus yards four times this season. The Tigers rank 113th in defensive EPA per rush. And with Quinn Ewers still recovering from an ankle injury, Texas might lean more on its ground attack — including the dual-threat abilities of backup quarterback Arch Manning.
Will Ohio State air it out?
- Ohio State’s regular season ended sourly, with a 13-10 loss at home to a severely overmatched Michigan Wolverines squad. One of the main head-scratchers coming out of that game — in addition to the flag-planting brouhaha — was the fact that the Buckeyes scripted far too many run plays.
- With three NFL-calibre prospects in their receiving corps, the Buckeyes should’ve operated more through the air. Ohio State has the No. 2 offensive pass success rate in the country (52.5%).
- Tennessee’s defence is No. 2 in success rate overall, but the Vols are only 46th at defensive pass success rate (38.8%). This isn’t a good matchup for Ohio State to establish the run. Instead, get the ball in the hands of Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate and Emeka Egbuka and let them dictate the outcome.
CFP schedule and odds
No. 10 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Spread: Notre Dame -7
Date: Dec. 20 at 8 p.m.
No. 11 SMU Mustangs vs. No. 6 Penn State Nittany Lions
Spread: Penn State -8.5
Date: Dec. 21 at 12 p.m.
No. 12 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 5 Texas Longhorns
Spread: Texas -12
Date: Dec. 21 at 4 p.m.
No. 9 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 8 Ohio State Buckeyes
Spread: Ohio State -7.5
Date: Dec. 21 at 8 p.m.
College Football Playoff betting guide: FAQ
When does the College Football Playoff start?
- The CFP begins with Indiana vs. Notre Dame on Friday, Dec. 20 at 8 p.m. ET.
What is the new College Football Playoff format?
- For the first time, the CFP has expanded to a 12-team format this season. The five highest-ranked conference champions received automatic bids. The remaining playoff spots went to the next seven highest-ranked teams. Rankings are determined by the CFP selection committee.
Who’s on the College Football Playoff selection committee?
- The CFP selection committee is a 13-person group consisting of coaches, athletic directors, former players and media. Some members carry over from one year to the next, but no two consecutive committees have been the same.
Where are the College Football playoff matchups played?
- First-round CFP matchups are hosted on campus by the schools with higher seeds (e.g., No. 7 Notre Dame hosts No. 10 Indiana). In the quarterfinals, all four games take place at neutral site bowl locations: Fiesta Bowl, Peach Bowl, Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl. For the semifinals, the Orange Bowl and Cotton Bowl host the games. Finally, the national championship is at an additional neutral site.
When is the College Football Playoff national championship?
- On Monday, Jan. 20, the CFP national championship will kick off at 7:30 p.m. ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
Which team won last year’s national championship?
- Last season, the Michigan Wolverines completed a 15-0 season with a national title victory over the Washington Huskies, 34-13.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.