The Toronto Maple Leafs head to the Lone Star State on Wednesday to take on the Dallas Stars.
The pregame narrative: Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner are slated to play together on Toronto’s top line tonight. I’m looking for the captain to score but expect Dallas to win at home.
Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. Stars for Dec. 18.
Maple Leafs picks vs. Stars
Go to full NHL betting markets.
Best Bet: Stars to win (-129)
Toronto’s star-studded top line will draw eyeballs, but Dallas is in better shape to win this game.
The Stars are 13-3-0 at American Airlines Center this season, allowing just 2.00 goals per game.
That’s largely thanks to Jake Oettinger, who has won eight of his last nine home starts. The netminder has shut down some of the league’s top offences during this run — with the help of an elite defence, of course:
- 3-1 win vs. Capitals on Dec. 16
- 3-1 win vs. Jets on Dec. 1
- 5-3 win vs. Avalanche on Nov. 29
Oettinger ranks 13th in save percentage (.913) and seventh in goals allowed average (2.33) and plays behind a defence which allows seventh-fewest shots per game (26.9).
Joseph Woll — who is expected to start for the Maple Leafs tonight — has even better numbers with a 2.24 GAA (third) and .918 SV% (fifth).
But I’m banking on some regression tonight.
Toronto is allowing the 11th-most expected goals per 60 (3.05) while Dallas is generating the fourth-most expected goals per 60 (3.34), according to Natural Stat Trick.
At home, I think the Stars can apply enough pressure on the young goaltender to secure a win.
Key stat: Dallas’ +24 home goal differential is the second-best in the NHL.
Quick picks
Matthews to score (+115): I’ll take Matthews to score at plus money against just about any team, regardless of how well it plays defensively.
Remember, we’re talking about a guy who scored 69 goals last year.
Toronto’s captain is starting to look like himself after missing nine games due to injury. He’s scored five goals in his last eight games and has at least four shots in five straight.
Matthews’ 15.9 expected goals are the third-most in the NHL, behind only Nico Hischier (15.7) and Kirill Kaprizov (15.9), according to Money Puck.
Oettinger and Dallas will be tough to crack but I’ll ride with the perennial Rocket Richard contender tonight.
NHL picks made at 10:21 a.m. ET on 12/18/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.