The Oklahoma City Thunder and Milwaukee Bucks battle for the NBA Cup championship in Las Vegas on Tuesday.
The pregame narrative: Taking the under on a teased-up total seems reasonable with two elite defences on the court. That said, I also expect Giannis Antetokounmpo and Cason Wallace to produce as scorers.
Check out my Thunder vs. Bucks same-game parlay predictions for the NBA Cup final on Dec. 17.
Thunder vs. Bucks predictions
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Parlay: Under 224.5 points + Antetokounmpo over 29.5 points + Wallace over 6.5 points (+330)
Under 224.5 points (-315): Milwaukee’s season-long defensive numbers don’t jump off the page but Doc Rivers’ team has clamped down.
Check out what the Bucks have done over their last 15 games:
- 12-3 record
- 110.0 defensive rating (8th in NBA)
- 44.3 opponent FG% (3rd in NBA)
The under is 7-8 in that span but four of Milwaukee’s last five games have fallen under this teased-up total.
Also, the Bucks’ last two games against top-five defensive teams have been rock fights.
They beat the Orlando Magic 114-109 on Dec. 10 and the Houston Rockets 101-100 on Nov. 18.
OKC leads the NBA in several key metrics such as defensive rating, opponent field goal percentage and opponent points per game.
I expect Mark Daigneault’s group — which owns a 14-11 under record — to make things difficult on the Bucks.
SGP legs
Antetokounmpo over 29.5 points (-139): Touting OKC’s defence and backing Giannis to score 30 may seem counterintuitive but I think I can have my cake and eat it too.
The Greek Freak is leading the league in points per game (32.7), scoring 30-plus in five straight and nine of his last 10.
The Thunder have the league’s best rim defence, according to Cleaning the Glass, but Giannis does a lot of damage at the charity stripe.
He’s averaging the second-most free throws (7.0) and most free-throw attempts (11.4) per game.
OKC commits the sixth-most personal fouls per game, which bodes well for this wager.
Wallace over 6.5 points (-177): The 2023 No. 10 overall pick certainly isn’t the biggest name on the Thunder but he’s carved out a starting role in recent weeks.
Wallace is averaging 9.3 points in December and has gone over this line in four of his last six games.
The Bucks have struggled to defend guards all season long. They’re giving up the 11th-most points and seventh-most 3s per game to SGs this season, according to Fantasy Pros.
Wallace has been attempting 5.0 threes a night this month and should see enough volume to go over this small total.
Picks made at 10:20 a.m. on 12/17/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.