The Toronto Raptors host the Chicago Bulls on Monday.
The pregame narrative: I’m predicting a high pace tonight between two teams that like to play fast. As a result, I am taking the over on a teased-down total with the over on prop picks for two Raptors’ players in a +265 ticket.
Check out my Raptors vs. Bulls same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 16.
Raptors vs. Bulls predictions
Go to full NBA betting markets
Parlay: RJ Barrett over 23.5 points + Gradey Dick over 17.5 points + Over 234.5 points (+265)
Barrett over 23.5 points (-165): The narrative heading into this game is, once again, about Scottie Barnes’s absence. But I think there’s a bigger story at play.
And that is how much better Barrett is at home versus on the road this season. Let’s look at his splits:
- Home: 27.9 PPG, 52.3 FG%, 39.4 3PT%
- Away: 18.8 PPG, 38.7 FG%, 29.9 3PT%
That is an enormous difference, which is made even better by this matchup against the Bulls.
- Chicago allows the most points per game to shooting guards (25.3), per Betting Pros.
- The Bulls have the NBA’s sixth-worst defensive rating (117.6).
Additionally, this is a buy-low spot for Barrett as he’s coming off a 13-point performance against the Heat. But that was on the road, and he’s been far more efficient at home.
Barrett has cleared this line in four of his last six games in Toronto.
SGP legs
Dick over 17.5 points (-165): I’m getting behind another one of Toronto’s guards here.
Once again, I’ll stress how bad Chicago’s defence is. Overall, the team allows the second-most points per game (121.9).
With Barnes sidelined, Dick should once again have more responsibility on the offensive end. Against the Heat on Friday, the second-year pro had 22 points on 19 attempts.
That’s nothing new, as Dick averages more shot attempts when Barnes is out
- With Barnes: 13.1 shot attempts/game
- Without Barnes: 15.8 shot attempts/game
The uptick in shots plus a soft matchup against the Bulls is a formula for success.
Over 234.5 points (-182): To build off the first two legs, I think this game is going way over this total.
The Bulls play at the second-fastest pace in the NBA (103.7) and put up the fifth-most points per game (118.7).
They also take the second-most threes (16.6) and hit them at a 37.9% clip.
The Raptors, on the other hand, are lost on defence without Barnes. They had a 122.1 defensive rating without their young star in the lineup last season.
For context, the worst defensive rating in the league currently belongs to the Utah Jazz (119.8).
Yeah, Toronto is that bad without Barnes. And as much as I think it will help Barrett and Dick, it’s just as beneficial for the over on this teased-down game total.
Picks made at 10:31 a.m. on 12/16/24.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.