Justin Jefferson is primed for a monster game when the Minnesota Vikings host the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football.
The pregame narrative: Chicago’s defence has completely unravelled and I expect Jefferson to get the ball early and often and find the end zone. Take the under on a teased-up total to round out this +375 ticket.
Check out my Bears vs. Vikings same-game parlay predictions for Monday Night Football’s Week 15 matchup.
Bears vs. Vikings same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Under 50.5 points + Jefferson over 82.5 yards + Jefferson to score (+375)
Under 50.5 points (-265): This leg has everything to do with Chicago’s ineptitude.
The Bears are averaging the fewest yards (290.0) and ninth-fewest points (19.5) per game. They have only scored more than 20 points in regulation once since Week 5.
That was against the Vikings, in Chicago, in a 30-27 overtime barn burner.
But I can’t see that happening again. Chicago scored 10 points in the last 30 seconds of the game before Minnesota eventually won on a walk-off field goal.
Since then, the Bears have been held to 33 points and 463 yards in two games.
Minnesota’s defence is elite and Caleb Williams looks lost thanks to an absolute mess of a coaching situation this year.
Unders are 8-5 in Vikings games this year and I expect the Bears to look lifeless on Monday night. The main reason I’m backing the under on a teased-up total is that it boosts this parlay from +180 to +370 due to negative correlation.
Other parlay picks
Jefferson over 82.5 yards (-115): Jefferson had a signature game last weekend, hauling in all seven of his targets for 132 yards and two scores.
The game before that, he caught seven of nine passes for 99 yards.
Chicago’s is 0-7 since its Week 7 bye and the defence has cratered.
- The Bears have allowed 259.2 passing yards per game in that span, which would be the third-most of any team extrapolated over the full season.
- Chicago ranks 28th in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per dropback since Week 8.
Jefferson had a quiet outing against them in Week 12 (two catches, 27 yards) but he has recorded 80-plus receiving yards in 10 of his last 12 and I expect him to right the ship.
Jefferson to score (-152): Piggybacking on the last play, I like Jefferson to find the end zone.
He snapped a six-game scoreless streak last week but had scored in five of six games before that. Overall he’s 5-7 against this mark but should probably have a lot more touchdowns.
Jefferson has the fifth-most red-zone targets in the NFL (17) and has the most catches of 20-plus yards (23).
Picks made at 3:10 p.m. on 12/14/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.