The battle of the Keystone State is on tap for Sunday in Philadelphia, where the Eagles host the Pittsburgh Steelers.
The pregame narrative: Both teams are still fighting for the top seed in their respective conferences, and I expect a close game. My +525 SGP includes an anytime TD pick for Jalen Hurts as well as a very manageable scrimmage yards prop for Jaylen Warren.
Check out my Steelers vs. Eagles same-game parlay predictions for Week 15 below.
Steelers vs. Eagles same-game parlay predictions
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Parlay: Steelers +10.5 + Hurts anytime TD + Warren over 51.5 rushing/receiving yards (+525)
Steelers +10.5 (-235): I’m not willing to fully commit to the idea of the Steelers being a great team.
Maybe it’s the head-scratching revival of Russell Wilson. Maybe it’s the fact they have two wins this season in which they didn’t score a touchdown. Or maybe it’s the pedigree of six straight seasons without a postseason win.
Regardless, I have to set my biases aside and at least acknowledge that the Steelers (10-3) are a very good team. And they should be more than capable of covering this alt spread.
Pittsburgh is 10-3-0 ATS, including a 5-0 mark as an underdog, per Team Rankings. All three of its losses have come by five points or fewer.
Philadelphia was a Xavier Legette drop away from potentially losing to the Carolina Panthers last week at home. The Eagles are 4-9 against a -10.5 spread, and a blowout over the Steelers seems doubtful.
Other parlay picks
Hurts anytime TD (-108): Pittsburgh’s defence has been solid, but I expect Philly to make some noise in the ground game.
The Eagles’ offence ranks No. 1 in rush EPA, per rbsdm.com, while the Steelers’ defence ranks 12th in rush EPA (and 26th since its Week 10 bye).
Teams tend not to run much against Pittsburgh, but that’s at the centre of Philadelphia’s identity.
MVP candidate Saquon Barkley churns for most of the yards, but in the goal-to-go area, Hurts is often the one capitalizing.
Since Week 7, look at Hurts’ production as a runner:
- 10 TDs
- 17 carries inside the 10-yard line
- 1+ carries inside the 5-yard line in 6/8 games
In the same span, Barkley has eight TDs, 15 carries inside the 10 and only four games with a carry inside the five.
The frequency and the success rate of the tush push make Hurts a great play at this anytime TD price.
Warren over 51.5 rushing/receiving yards (-112): No one will mistake Warren for being an RB1, but he’s involved enough in the Steelers’ offence to clear this mark routinely.
Dating back to Week 7, Warren has topped this yardage total in seven straight games. Here’s what his production has looked like in that span:
- 68.7 scrimmage yards/game
- 9+ carries in 6/7 games
- 3+ targets in 6/7 games
In Pittsburgh’s past seven games, Warren is averaging 5.6 yards per touch while Najee Harris is averaging 4.3.
It’s largely Harris’ backfield, especially in the running game, but there’s no reason to suspect Warren’s workload to completely fall off.
Also, Warren out-targeted Harris, 5-0, last week. If the Steelers are playing from behind and need to throw more, that should help Warren.
Picks made at 1:20 p.m. on 12/13/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.