The Sacramento Kings face the New Orleans Pelicans in the third and final NBA game on Thursday’s schedule, and I’ve got two prop bets from the game.
The pregame narrative: De’Aaron Fox and Herbert Jones both draw enticing matchups that have me eyeing overs on their prop markets. In Boston, look for Cade Cunningham to rack up assists against the Celtics.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for Dec. 12.
NBA prop bets
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Best bet: Fox over 6.5 assists (+100)
The Kings are a rare case in which their centre (Domantas Sabonis) averages more assists per game than their point guard (Fox).
But Fox’s involvement as a passer has trended up over the past month or so, and it’s at a point where this prop market is interesting to me.
- Since Nov. 10, Fox has averaged 12.8 potential assists per game, which accounts for all passes that lead directly to shots.
- In nine games before that, he’d only averaged 9.3 potential assists, according to NBA.com’s player tracking data.
- Sabonis is averaging 8.9 potential assists since Nov. 10 — down from 12.0 beforehand.
Tonight’s matchup against the Pelicans should be a solid one for Fox to continue his pass-happy ways. The Pelicans allow the fifth-most assists to opposing point guards (9.9/game), per Betting Pros.
Though Fox will never monopolize the playmaking duties within the Kings’ starting five, he’s in a situation on Thursday that should lead to plenty of assists.
Key stat: Fox is 11-5 against this assist number in his past 16 games, averaging 6.9 APG in that span.
Quick picks
Jones over 1.5 threes (+100): Jones just returned from a shoulder injury three games ago, but he walked right back into a hearty workload and has played 37 minutes in back-to-back games.
He’s not a volume shooter, but at plus-money odds, I think canning multiple 3s should absolutely be attainable.
Jones, who shot 41.8% from deep last season, has cashed this bet in two of three games since his return. He’s 5-for-13 beyond the arc in that span.
The Kings are a grade-A matchup for any 3-point shooter, as they allow the second-most 3s per game (15.0) on the second-highest percentage (37.7%).
Cunningham over 8.5 assists (-150): I don’t mind backing Cunningham over 9.5 assists at +120, but this isn’t a prohibitive amount of juice to pay at a slightly lower line.
Cunningham takes more shots than anyone else on the Detroit Pistons, but he tallies the most assists, too. And he’s been fantastic against this line for quite a while.
- 9+ assists in 13/14 games since Nov. 4
- Coming off a season-high 15 assists
- Averaging 9.4 APG on the year
Cunningham had 14 assists against Boston on Dec. 4 after posting 10 assists in the same matchup on Oct. 26.
Picks made at 9:05 a.m. ET on 12/12/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.