The Toronto Raptors are taking their 7-18 record to South Beach for a meeting with the Miami Heat.
The pregame narrative: Scottie Barnes is out and Miami is rolling. Back the Heat to cover an alternate spread alongside prop bets on Tyler Herro and Jakob Poeltl.
Check out my Raptors vs. Heat same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 12.
Raptors vs. Heat predictions
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Parlay: Heat -6.5 + Herro over 3.5 threes + Poeltl over 10.5 rebounds (+310)
Heat -6.5 (-210): Toronto owns the second-best ATS record in the league (17-5) but I want to fade it against a surging Miami squad.
The Heat have won three straight games against the Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns and Cleveland Cavaliers. All were at home and all were by at least nine points.
Overall, Miami is 7-3 in its last 10 and has covered the spread six times. That includes a 10-point win over the Raptors in Miami on Nov. 29.
Barnes played in that game but is out again after averaging 21.1 points, 8.7 rebounds and 8.0 assists since returning from an orbital bone fracture.
The Raps went 2-9 with him sidelined and I expect them to struggle again tonight.
SGP legs
Herro over 21.5 points (-205): I love Herro’s chances of clearing this teased-down total.
The sharpshooting guard is averaging 24.2 points on 47.7% shooting and has already torched the Raptors twice.
He put up 31 and 23 points against Toronto shooting a combined 10-of-22 from beyond the arc.
That type of 3-point production has come to be expected from Herro, who is shooting 42.2% on 9.9 attempts per game.
This is a line Herro has cleared in five of his last seven games.
Poeltl over 10.5 rebounds (-167): Poeltl is having his best season as a pro, averaging career highs in points (15.9) and rebounds (11.6).
- Poeltl’s 11.6 rebounds/game are the fifth-most in the NBA.
- Toronto’s centre has had 10+ rebounds in 17/24 games.
Poeltl has been stuffing the stat sheet and will have more opportunities with Barnes sidelined. He has covered this number in three straight games with Barnes out, putting up 15, 12 and 18 rebounds.
On the season he is 5-3 against this line with Barnes out.
The Heat are a below-average team on the glass (19th in rebounding rate) so I expect Poeltl to clean up.
Picks made at 12:31 p.m. on 12/12/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.