The NBA Cup continues on Wednesday with two quarterfinal games.
The pregame narrative: With a berth in Saturday’s semifinals on the line, I have plays on Jalen Brunson, Jalen Green and Jabari Smith Jr.
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Best bet: Brunson over 2.5 threes (-136)
Point guards generally do damage against the Atlanta Hawks and Brunson is one of the best in the NBA.
Brunson’s scoring is down on a deep and restocked New York Knicks roster, so I’m electing to back him on his 3-point prop.
Through 24 games, Brunson is averaging 2.7 triples on a career-high 43.2% from deep.
- Brunson cleared this in 5 of his last 6
- ATL is last in the NBA in opponent 3P%
- ATL allows second-most 3s to PGs
This game has a total of 237.5 points. We should expect plenty of scoring and Brunson to continue contributing from long range.
He attempted a season-high 11 threes against the Hawks in November, making four of them in a game that landed on 237 points.
Key stat: Brunson is 7-3 against this line in his last 10 games and is 14-10 against it on the season.
Quick picks
Green under 19.5 points (-113): The second game of tonight’s doubleheader has a total that’s 14 points lower than Hawks/Knicks.
That’s no surprise considering these are two of the top-rated defensive teams in the NBA. The Houston Rockets are second in defensive rating and the Golden State Warriors are right behind at fourth.
These teams met last week and combined for 192 points in a six-point win for Golden State. Green was held to 14 points on 4-of-16 shooting from the field.
He had a season-low seven points on a dreadful 2-of-13 line when he saw the Warriors in November.
Beyond that, the shooting guard has remained an inconsistent and inefficient scorer this season.
- Green was 5-0 vs. this line in October, averaging 27.6 PPG.
- Since then, Green is 6-13 vs. this line while averaging 17.4/game.
Green is shooting career lows from the field (39.2%) and perimeter (32.8%).
Smith over 7.5 rebounds (-106): Smith’s minutes are up significantly in December, logging an average of 36.8 per game through four contests.
He has corralled double-digit rebounds twice and landed on seven in the other two, including against these same Warriors he’ll see tonight.
Smith also had seven versus Golden State when the teams met in November.
The 21-year-old has not been a particularly strong over play against this number, clearing it nine times in 24 games. But it’s important to note he was getting nearly 10 fewer minutes per game last month.
Smith averaged 8.1 rebounds in his sophomore year last season and would have extra opportunities on the glass if either Alperen Sengun or Steven Adams are sidelined (both are questionable as of Wednesday morning).
Picks made at 11:35 a.m. ET on 12/11/2024.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.