The Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers begin Week 15 with a huge NFC West showdown.
The pregame narrative: I expect both teams to empty the offensive playbook with playoff aspirations on the line. Back Los Angeles to clear its team total and take the over on George Kittle’s receiving prop.
Check out my Rams vs. 49ers best bets for Thursday Night Football on Dec. 12.
Rams vs. 49ers best bets
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Best Bet: Kittle over 56.5 receiving yards (-120)
This line seems a tad low.
Kittle erupted for 151 yards on six receptions last week and has cleared this mark in seven of his last eight games. The one outlier was a seven-yard game, in a full-blown blizzard, against the Buffalo Bills.
Here are his per-week averages on the season if we exclude that contest:
- 79.3 yards per game
- 4+ catches in 9/10 games
- 5+ targets in 8/10 games
- 8-2 against this line
It’s worth noting this has been a tough matchup for Kittle. He’s gone under this mark in five straight games against Los Angeles while averaging just 30.6 yards per game.
But I expect him to be active out of necessity.
Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk are out, and Deebo Samuel seems to have lost a step. Kittle is the sure-handed alpha-dog on this offence and Kyle Shanahan should do everything to get him the ball.
The Rams are also much better at defending the run than the pass, in spite of an Aaron Donald-sized hole on the line.
Key stat: Los Angeles allows the ninth-most passing yards per game and ranks 27th in RBSDM.com’s defensive EPA per dropback.
Quick pick
Rams over 23.5 points (-118): Los Angeles scoring at will would be great for our Kittle pick from a game script standpoint — and who’s to say that can’t happen?
The Rams went toe-to-toe with Josh Allen and the Bills in Week 14, scoring 44 points in a nail-biting win.
Matthew Stafford has looked great, while Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams remain one of the toughest trios to defend in the NFL.
San Francisco just bottled up the Chicago Bears, but is that saying much?
Before that, it had allowed 35 and 38 points to the Bills and Green Bay Packers. Seven of the Niners’ 13 opponents have cleared this total, including the Rams in September.
Picks made at 1:32 p.m. ET 12/10/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.